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The first set of exit polls is showing a BJP victory in West Bengal, with the party expected to win 178-210 seats, according to Praja Poll survey. The Trinamool Congress is expected to win 85-110 seats, it added.
In a surprise prediction, Vijay's TVK is set to sweep Tamil Nadu from DMK's iron grip, according to the Axis My India survey.
Exit poll predictions Assam, and Kerala and one Union Territory of Puducherry have also started pouring in. The BJP is seen heading for a clean sweep in Assam and Puducherry, whereas the Congress-led UDF is seen wresting Kerala.
Stay tuned for all the live updates!
Exit Polls predictions are subject to errors and do not always turn out to be correct, believe at your own risk, dear readers.
The electoral battle in West Bengal appears to be heading towards a nail-biting finish, with the NDTV Poll of Exit Polls showing an almost even contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the ruling Trinamool Congress.
According to the aggregated projection compiled from multiple regional and national exit polls, the BJP is projected to win around 143 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, while the TMC is close behind at 142 seats. Congress and Left are projected to secure just one seat each, while others may account for seven seats.
The projections point to one of the closest electoral contests in the state in recent years, raising the possibility of a dramatic finish when votes are counted.
Read more here
| Source | TMC | BJP | CONG | LEFT | OTH |
| Janmat polls | 195-205 | 80-90 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-5 |
| JVC | 131-152 | 138-159 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Matrize | 125-140 | 146-161 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6-10 |
| P-Marq | 118-138 | 150-175 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 177-187 | 95-110 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Poll Diary | 99-127 | 142-171 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
|
Source |
NRC |
CONG |
TVK |
OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Axis My India |
16-20 |
6-8 |
2-4 |
1-3 |
|
KAMAKHYA ANALYTICS |
17-24 |
4-7 |
1-2 |
0-1 |
|
Peoples Pulse |
16-19 |
10-12 |
0-0 |
1-2 |
|
Praja poll |
19-25 |
6-10 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
|
Poll of Exit Polls |
20 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
| Source | DMK | ADMK | TVK | OTH |
| Axis My India | 92-110 | 22-23 | 98-120 | 0-0 |
| JVC | 75-95 | 128-147 | 8-15 | 0-0 |
| KAMAKHYA ANALYTICS | 78-95 | 68-84 | 67-81 | 0-0 |
| Matrize | 122-132 | 87-100 | 10-12 | 0-6 |
| P-Marq | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 1-6 |
| Source | LDF | UDF | BJP | OTH |
| Axis My India | 49-62 | 78-90 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Peoples Insight | 58-68 | 66-76 | 10-14 | 0-1 |
| Peoples Pulse | 55-65 | 75-85 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Vote Vibe | 58-68 | 70-80 | 0-0 | 0-4 |
| Poll of Exit Polls | 60 | 75 | 4 | 1 |
| Source | BJP | CONG | AIUDF | OTH |
| Axis My India | 88-100 | 24-36 | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Janmat polls | 87-98 | 29-30 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| JVC | 88-101 | 23-33 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| KAMAKHYA ANALYTICS | 85-95 | 26-39 | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Matrize | 85-95 | 25-32 | 0-0 | 6-12 |
Three out of five pollsters so far have indicated a rout for the Edappadi K. Palaniswami-led AIADMK. Senior journalist RK RadhaKrishnan pointed that the party still has a strong hold in western part of the state and may not lose as much ground.
According to the axis my india poll for Tamil Nadu, 35% of voters want MK Stalin to retain his seat and become CM again while 37% want Vijay as the CM.
"Wherever they DMK is winning, they are winning with a big margin, and wherever the TVK is in a three-cornered contest, it is winning with a thinner marking," says Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India.
According to a survey by the Axis My India, 68% of first time voters between 18 to 19 years of age voted for the TVK. Similarly, 42% of the unemployed vote went to the party as well.
West Bengal records highest-ever poll-participation since Independence with 91.66% poll-participation recorded in Phase-II and over 93% in Phase one.
West Bengal 2026 Turnout Both Phases Combined - 92.47%
According to a survey by Axis My India, 67% of those who identified as students have voted for Vijay's TVK.
Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam or TVK has pooled 38% of the votes from women, as compared to 32% from men. The party, according to surveys has a stronger hold in the urban areas with 38% vote share.
Party Wise Seat Prediction for Tamil Nadu as per Axis My India:
TVK: 98-120
DMK: 92-110
ADMK: 22-32
Senior journalist and columnist Vir Sanghvi refrained from commenting on a possible BJP sweep in Bengal, stating that anyone who comments on WB politics ends up "looking like a fool".
Axis My India predicts a blockbuster debut for actor turned politician Vijay's TVK, with the party bagging 98-120 seats.
A fresh survey by JVC indicates that AIADMK might still be in the game in Tamil Nadu and head for a shock victory against the incumbent DMK.
The party might win between 128 to 147 seats, as opposed to DMK bagging 75-95 seats of the total 234 seats in the state.
For the West Bengal Legislative Assembly Elections, four surveys predict a landmark BJP sweep. Mamata's TMC is seen losing precious ground as per these predictions.
Axis My India will release its survey on Thursday.
For the West Bengal Legislative Assembly Elections, four surveys predict a landmark BJP sweep. Mamata's TMC is seen losing precious ground as per these predictions.
Here is an overview:
West Bengal (Total: 294)
Praja Poll: BJP (178-208) | TMC (85-110) | OTH (0-5)
P-Marq: BJP (150-175) | TMC (118-138) | OTH (2-6)
Matrize: BJP (146-161) | TMC (125-140) | OTH (6-10)
Poll Diary: BJP (142-171) | TMC (99-127) | OTH (5-9)
Peoples Pulse: TMC (177-187) | BJP (95-110) | OTH (1-4)
While so far the exit polls predict DMK retaining power in Tamil Nadu, Axis My India will soon share their projections on the same soon.
The West Bengal assembly election 2026 was being conducted in two phases, with polling for the first phase held on April 23 and the second phase on April 29. The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the principal opposition with 77 seats. Notably, the Indian National Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) failed to win a single seat, an unprecedented outcome in the state's political history.
Praja Polls predictions show a massive sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal.
Read More: West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2026: BJP Likely To End TMC Rule
A survey by matrize shows that TMC will bag between 125 to 140 seats in West Bengal, while BJP might secure a victory after securing 146-161 seats of the total 294 seats.
A survey by Praja Polls shows that West Bengal might slip away from TMC's hold as it is seen bagging only 85 to 110 seats of the total 294 seats in the state.
Praja Polls predictions show a massive sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal. The BJP is seen bagging between 178 and 210 seats in the state.
People's Pulse estimates that AIADMK will bag up to 70 seats in the legislative assembly elections.
UDF seat share in Kerala is seen at 75 to 85 of the total 140 seats. However, LDF's seat share has declined to 55-65 from a majority of 91 seats in the 2021 elections.
Pradeep Gupta, MD & Chairman Axis My India told NDTV that he is 70% confident of a Congress return to God's Own Country or Kerala.
N Rangaswamy led NDA alliance in the Union Territory of Puducherry is expected to retain the state. Predictions indicate that the alliance may bag up to 20 seats.
Kerala, which is known to shake up the political regime every five years, may see another change after a long decade of LDF rule. Prediction indicate the anti-incumbency UDF to win in the state.
Congress led UDF is expected to bag between 78 to 90 seats of the total 140 seats in Kerala. UDF is seen winning against the incumbent LDF in southern state.
As per early surveys done by Axis My India, vote shares for the LDF have declined. It predicts a victory by the congress led United Democratic Front or UDF.
As per Axis My India's gender wise survey, both male and female voters are favoring the United Democratic Front in Kerala. Is ground slipping away from the incumbent LDF?
Axis My India predictions indicate a heavy loss for the congress alliance in Assam.
The congress alliance is expected to bag up to 36 seats of the total 126 seats.
Of this congress is expected to acquire up to 30 seats, Raijor Dal can get up to 4 seats, while AJP, CPI and IND may get up to 2 to 1 seats each.
According to Axis My India BJP will secure 70-80 seats in Assam, led by incumbent CM Himanta Biswa Sharma
The other NDA allies, namely AGP and BPF can bag up to 9 seats and up to 11 seats, respectively.
DMK is projected to retain the state of Tamil Nadu with a clean sweep of seats between 125-145, says People's pulse.
According to the Axis My India exit poll prediction, the National Democratic Alliance is headed for a massive victory in the state assembly elections of Assam with seat tally between 88-100.
BJP will likely gain the majority with 70 to 80 seats while Congress will secure 24 to 36 seats.
The second phase of polls has come to an end in West Bengal, only those voters that are already standing in queues will be allowed to cast their votes.
Exit poll predictions for the state assembly elections will start pouring in any minute now, stay tuned for all the latest updates!
On the ground in West Bengal, the mood suggests movement. Anti-incumbency is visible, and conversations feel more contested. Yet, beneath the noise of a high-decibel campaign, the arithmetic remains stubborn. After traveling across the state, investor and author Ruchir Sharma sums it up in simple terms in an exclusive Walk The Talk with NDTV's editor-in-chief Rahul Kanwal: "The gap's going to close, but will the gap be close enough in one election for the entire thing to flip?"
Read more here.
The Left Democratic Front has had a stronghold over God's own country. In the last election the CPI(M) led alliance bagged 99 seats while the Indian National Congress led United democratic front could only win 41 seats.
Tamil Nadu exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections are likely to be released after 6:30 p.m. on April 29, once voting ends in West Bengal. The early projections could offer the first signals on who may form the next government in one of India's key political battlegrounds.
Nearly 4.87 crore voters cast their ballots in the single-phase election on April 23 across 234 constituencies, deciding the fate of 4,023 candidates. With turnout crossing 85%, the contest has drawn attention because of a three-way fight involving the DMK, AIADMK and Vijay's TVK.
The ruling DMK, leading the Secular Progressive Alliance, is seeking another term with support from Congress, Left parties and the VCK. The AIADMK, heading the National Democratic Alliance, is trying to return to power with allies including the BJP. TVK is contesting all 234 seats in its first major electoral test.
The National Democratic Alliance had bagged simple majority in 2021, led by AINRC's N. Rangaswamy. However before that, In Feb 2021, a trust vote was called after several members of the Congress including two ministers, and one member of the DMK resigned. In the end, the sitting CM V Narayanasamy resigned as chief minister on Feb 22, with the government losing strength in numbers after resignations.
Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted using a small sample of voters.
First, polling agencies select different polling booths and areas across the state. They make a sample which includes all types of voters, including people from cities, villages, different age groups, income levels, and communities. This is called sampling.
They are asked who they voted for, along with basic details like their age, area, and background. Next, all the answers are collected and recorded by the survey team from different polling booths and regions.
After that comes weightage, where the raw data is then weighted and adjusted to show the actual voter distribution in the state based on caste, region, gender, past voting patterns, etc.
Then, experts do an analysis of all the collected data using statistical methods to predict how many seats each party might win based on voting patterns. They also calculate a margin of error, which shows how accurate or uncertain the prediction is.
At the end, it is combined into a final exit poll prediction, which is shared with the public as an estimate of the election outcome.
The 2021 Kerala Assembly polls saw the ruling LDF, under the leadership of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), achieve a notable victory with 99 seats in the 140-member House. The CPI(M) accounted for 62 of these, making it the single biggest party.
The exit polls suggested that the incumbent LDF was likely to return to power in Kerala, defying the state's long-standing trend of governments alternating every second election.
In 2021, most exit polls correctly anticipated a victory for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, though they overstated the scale of its win. The alliance ultimately secured 159 of the 234 seats, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led bloc finished with 75.
India Today-Axis My India projected 175-195 seats for the DMK alliance against 38-54 for AIADMK . Today's Chanakya forecast 164-186 seats for DMK (or 175±11) and 46-68 (or 57±11) for AIADMK . Jan Ki Baat/CNX placed DMK at 160-170 and AIADMK at 56-68.
Historically, exit polls in West Bengal have correctly identified the winning party, though they have frequently miscalculated the margin of victory.
The discrepancy was particularly stark in 2021, when forecasts widely pointed to gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party that did not materialise.
Exit poll estimates differed considerably. Axis forecasted 130-156 seats for the All India Trinamool Congress and 134-160 for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Jan Ki Baat gave the BJP a range of 162-185 seats against 104-121 for the TMC, while ABP-CVoter predicted 152-164 for the TMC and 109-121 for the BJP.
In a House of 294 seats, the All India Trinamool Congress went on to win 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77, underscoring the extent to which exit polls had underestimated the scale of the victory.
Exit polls are conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots to gauge where the larger public sentiment lies and how people have voted. They help in predicting possible election outcomes. Participants are asked which party they supported, along with details like their age, gender and social background, to help identify voting trends.
While exit polls do not always match the final results exactly, they provide an early indication of public sentiment and possible political shifts before the official counting begins.
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's victory in the 2021 state legislative assembly elections in Tamil Nadu was key shift in the political landscape of the state.
The DMK gained ground after AIADMK's reign for over three decades across multiple terms between 1977 and 2021.
In 2021 however, DMK bagged 133 seats while AIADMK stood tally stood at 66 seats.
West Bengal recorded a voter turnout of 89.99% as of 5 p.m.
Bengal had a record voter turn out in phase 1, it will break its own record in phase 2, says BJP MP Anurag Thakur
"Are Bengalis not being trusted?" asked veteran politician and three-time former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah, on Wednesday while slamming the Election Commission for the deployment of a large contingent of central police forces and bureaucrats during the West Bengal polls.
Abdullah, who is the president of the ruling National Conference, condemned the rhetoric used by national leaders against West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, describing the language as "unparliamentary and not befitting this nation".
With Mamata Banerjee's iron grip over West Bengal for nearly 15 years, another party gaining ground seemed like more than difficult.
However, things changed drastically after the 2021 Legislative Assembly election, where even as TMC secured a landslide victory, BJP increased their tally by 74 seats to 77 seats from an earlier tally of just 3 seats in 2016.
The electricity is off the charts with exit polls predictions slated to pour in for some of the most high-stakes political battlegrounds in the Indian sub-continent.
I am Khushi, and I am here to keep you updated with all the latest predictions of the legislative assembly elections for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry.
Stay tuned! (and grab some popcorn)
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam was founder in Feb 2024 by actor turned politician Vijay. While a cult icon among the masses of these states because of his silver screen blockbusters, jury is still out on whether his party stands a chance against the forces of the two mega dravidian parties.
The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam contested solo in both the Puducherry Legislative Assembly general elections and Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
Assam recorded a voter turnout of 85.91%, Keralam (previously Kerala) recorded a voter turnout of 78.27%, while Puducherry registered a turnout of 89.87%.
As soon as the second phase of in West Bengal concludes at 6 p.m. all eyes will turn to the exit poll predictions. Voting concluded in Tamil Nadu on April 23 in a single phase while Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry had voted earlier on April 9. The high voter turnout in both West Bengal and Tamil Nadu has further heightened interest in the exit poll predictions.
West Bengal's voter turnout till 3 p.m. for the second phase of legislative assembly polls stood at 78.68%. In Phase one the voter turnout came in at over 93%.
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