India's monsoon deficit has narrowed sharply to around 15%, from a steep 40% shortfall in June, as vigorous rainfall over the past ten days covers lost ground across central India, according to GP Sharma, President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet.
However, water resource experts caution that reservoir levels remain well below last year's mark even as the rains recover, with a strengthening El Nino still clouding the outlook for the rest of the season.
"We are in the normal bracket as far as the pan-India rainfall is concerned," Sharma said, noting that Mumbai alone has already crossed 1,100mm this month, closing in on the city's all-time July record of 1,771mm set in 2023.
Between July 1 and July 7, the deficit had already fallen to around 17%, and Sharma said he expected it to ease further to about 15% once rain from the past 24 hours is factored in.
Recovery has been uneven, though. Sharma said Maharashtra's landlocked subdivisions of Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra have bounced back to near breakeven, while Marathwada remains in deficit. Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, he added, are "still deficient by over 50% even as of now."
Although he expects rain to reach these pockets between July 10 and July 20, even as a roughly ten-day lull sets in over already-soaked regions such as Mumbai.
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Sharma flagged a longer-term risk: El Nino, currently in a weak phase, is "transiting right now to the moderate one" and will likely persist through the season, peaking only after the monsoon ends. He recalled that moderate El Nino years, including 2002, 2004 and 2009, have previously disrupted the monsoon and triggered severe droughts.
On reservoirs, Anshuman, Director of the Water Resources Division at TERI, said India's 166 major reservoirs held just 26% of capacity, or roughly 47.7 billion cubic metres, as of July 2, 39% lower than the same period last year.
He said storage would improve as rainfall continues but that overall projections still point to a below-normal season, adding that reservoir and groundwater levels directly affect water availability for agriculture, and that planning would need to account for a continuing shortfall.
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