The Bharatiya Janata Party is headed for a landslide victory in Assam, with the Axis My India survey projecting the party-led coalition to win 88-100 seats.
With the halfway majority mark at 64 seats, the projection shows that the BJP could be heading towards a two-third majority victory in the state.
The Opposition camp of Congress is expected to be restricted to 24-36 seats, as per the exit poll.
Smaller parties are expected to have negligible impact, with the AIUDF seen winning only two seats, whereas the UPPL is projected to bag three.
Track Live Updates Of Five-State Exit Poll Results
Within the NDA camp, the BJP is headed for victory in 70-80 seats, Asom Gana Parishad 7-9, and Bodoland People's Front 9-11. Within the Congress alliance, the grand old party is expected to win 22-30, Raidor Dal 1-4, AJP 1-2, and CPI(M) 0-1.
In terms of vote share, the BJP-led NDA has secured a brute 48%, shows the exit poll, whereas the Congress-led alliance is seen winning 38%.
The 2026 Assam Assembly election witnessed a direct contest between the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led opposition alliance, with regional parties also seen as key players.
The NDA bloc, anchored by the Bharatiya Janata Party, included key allies such as the Asom Gana Parishad and the United People's Party Liberal.
On the other side, the opposition coalition was led by the Indian National Congress.
Other key players in the contest includes the Badraddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), and other smaller regional groups.
126 Seats at Stake
The Assam Legislative Assembly comprises 126 seats, all of which went to polls in the 2026 election. A party or alliance requires 64 seats to secure a simple majority and form the government.
Single-Phase Polling
The entire state voted in a single phase on April 9, 2026, covering all constituencies in one day.
2021 Assembly Eelection Verdict
In the previous election held in 2021, the NDA retained power with a comfortable majority. The BJP won 60 seats, while its allies AGP and UPPL secured 9 and 6 seats respectively, taking the alliance tally to 75.
The Congress won 29 seats, with its then ally AIUDF securing 16, while other parties, including the Bodoland People's Front, won a handful of seats. Following the victory, Himanta Biswa Sarma took over as Chief Minister.
Opinion Polls Favoured NDA
Ahead of the 2026 polls, most opinion surveys projected a clear edge for the ruling alliance, pointing towards a potential third consecutive term for the BJP-led bloc.
Peoples Pulse Tracker Poll (Nov–Dec 2025): Projected the NDA to win around 90 seats in the 126-member House.
CVOTER Opinion Poll (April 2026): Gave the BJP+ alliance a vote share of around 48%, compared to 35% for the Congress-led alliance.
Chanakya/Chanakya Matrix Survey: Estimated 83–90 seats for BJP+, 30–36 seats for Congress+, and around 3 seats for others, indicating a clear advantage for the NDA.
The Congress and its allies, including Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal, were projected to secure roughly 22–32 seats, reflecting a tough electoral battle for them.
Key Factors In Play
Analysts pointed to the BJP's “double engine” governance narrative—alignment between the Centre and the state—as a major campaign plank. Governance performance over the past term and consolidation of alliances also shaped voter discourse.
The Big Picture
Overall, the electoral contest in Assam in 2026 was widely seen as a BJP versus Congress alliance battle, with pre-poll projections consistently suggesting a strong advantage for the incumbent NDA—though, as always, the final outcome rests on the voters' verdict.
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