The continuing Middle East crisis has entered a potentially deadly new phase with Iran's Tasnim News Agency reporting that Tehran is determined to fully shut the Strait of Hormuz and "active all other fronts, including Bab el-Mandeb Strait", to punish Israel for its actions in Lebanon.
Bab el-Mandeb, sometimes written Bab al-Mandab, means "Gate of Tears" or "Gate of Grief" in Arabic, which is a small waterway that separates Djibouti and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa from Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula. The physical and historical dangers of crossing this strait are reflected in the name. In the past, the tiny river was notorious for its hazardous crosscurrents, reefs, erratic winds, and multiple shipwrecks that claimed many lives.
An ancient Arab legend also attributes the name to the massive loss of life from a great earthquake that separated the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa.
It physically links the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden to the south and the Red Sea to the north. One of the world's most important shipping chokepoints, it serves as the southern entrance to the Suez Canal. Every year, it handles around 20% of the world's energy transit and 30% of the world's container traffic.
ALSO READ: Oil Shock Looms: Brent Jumps 7% As Iran Renews Hormuz Threat, Adds Bab el-Mandeb Warning
According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, Iran's negotiating team is halting text and messaging exchanges with the US via mediator Pakistan and has threatened a complete blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and "activation of the Bab al-Mandab front" as retaliatory actions against Israel and its allies.
Global Trade, Energy Flows Under Threat?
Bab el-Mandeb is the entry point between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, if Hormuz is the Gulf's energy conduit. One of the worst shocks to international trade, shipping, and energy markets in decades might result from simultaneous disruption at both chokepoints.
The Hormuz closure makes the Bab al-Mandeb threat even more urgent. An estimated $10 billion in daily global trade is at risk from a combined disruption of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, which would prevent about 30% of container shipping from using regular routes and jeopardise about 22% of the world's oil supply, according to the Observer Research Foundation. When Hormuz closed, Riyadh activated its East-West Pipeline at full 7 million barrels per day capacity. One of the main reasons oil prices haven't yet surpassed the $200 threshold that Iran has warned is because of this bypass, it added.
ALSO READ: Iran Determined To Fully Shut Hormuz, Activate Bab Al-Mandeb Front To Punish Israel, Tasnim Reports
During the current situation, Bab el-Mandeb's significance has grown significantly.
Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, were depending more and more on other export routes that led to the Red Sea following disturbances and threats near the Strait of Hormuz.
In order to avoid Hormuz, Saudi Arabia increased the usage of its east-west pipeline system to move crude from its eastern oil reserves to Red Sea ports like Yanbu.
Iran does not physically control Bab el-Mandeb, in contrast to Hormuz. Nonetheless, Tehran has sway over regional allies, most notably the Houthi movement in Yemen.
During past regional crises, the Houthis have previously shown that they are capable of disrupting Red Sea transport by attacking commercial ships and compelling large shipping corporations to detour around Africa. Because of this experience, threats affecting Bab el-Mandeb are taken seriously by markets worldwide.
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