The renewed US-Iran confrontation has significantly dampened expectations for a swift recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with traders on prediction platform Kalshi now forecasting that normal vessel traffic is unlikely to resume before the beginning of 2027.
The shift in sentiment follows US President Donald Trump's announcement that the ceasefire with Iran was "over" after US strikes on Iranian targets in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the strategic waterway.
Traders now assign only a 44% probability that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will normalise by December 1, 2026, CNBC reported, citing Kalshi data.
The earliest date with a better-than-even chance is January 1, 2027, when the probability rises to 53%.
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Kalshi defines "normal" traffic as a seven-day moving average of more than 60 transit calls through the Strait, based on IMF PortWatch data used to settle the contracts.
The outlook has deteriorated rapidly in recent days. As recently as July 4, Kalshi traders had assigned a greater than 50% chance of traffic returning to normal by October 1.
Prediction platform Polymarket is relatively more optimistic, with traders pricing a 59% chance that shipping flows will normalise by the end of December 2026, using the same benchmark and data source.
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Commenting on the latest developments, Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart said shipping activity through the Strait is "suddenly very far from normal."
In a note, Stuart said the renewed disruption has tightened global oil supplies and diminished hopes that commercial insurers would lower war-risk premiums anytime soon.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, handling a significant share of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Any prolonged disruption is closely watched by energy markets, shipping companies and insurers worldwide.
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