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Nirmal Bang Report
GVA growth seen at 7.6% and GDP growth at 7.4% in Q4 FY26:
GVA growth in Q4 FY26 is seen at 7.6% while GDP growth is expected at 7.4%. The wedge between GVA and GDP growth is owing to the muted increase in net indirect tax collections, partly due to the reduction in GST and higher subsidies in Q4 FY26. Growth in state taxes was also muted. We retain our FY26 GDP estimate at 7.6% and GVA at 7.7%.
Agriculture and allied sector growth is expected to be healthy at 4.5% YoY in Q4 FY26 supported by a robust Rabi crop.
Growth is expected to be led by services (including construction) at 9.6% YoY in Q4 FY26, up from 9.1% in Q3 FY26, and 7% a year ago. Industry (excluding construction) is seen moderating to 4.7% YoY in Q4 FY26 from 11.1% in Q3 FY26.
Core GVA is seen at 8.4% YoY in Q4 FY26, moderating from 10.5% in Q3 FY26.
Nirmal Bang retains its FY26 GDP growth estimate at 7.6% and GVA growth at 7.7%.
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