(Bloomberg) -- There's a reason presidential nominee Donald Trump's message of a declining America is inspiring support in Republican strongholds: poverty is worsening in his party's congressional districts, a new analysis by the Brookings Institution shows.
The poverty rate increased in nearly all — 96 percent — of the Republican-controlled districts between 2000 and the 2010-2014 period, according to a study by Elizabeth Kneebone, a fellow with the Washington-based institute. She analyzed Census data and figures from the American Community Survey. The population living in poverty in all Republican districts climbed by 49 percent, compared with a 33 percent increase in Democratic areas.
A big theme of this presidential election campaign that will be decided on Nov. 8 has been the battle to win low-income voters who feel left behind from the economic expansion. Trump's rallies have been often packed with middle-class supporters who are receiving his message to “make America great again.” Both him and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton have promised to raise the minimum wage and deal with the affordability of college and childcare.
Neighborhoods in Democrat-leaning districts also have a high proportion of poor people. Combined, the poverty rate in districts represented by Democrats was higher at 17.1 percent in 2010-14 than the 14.4 percent in Republican areas. However, the overall number of poor residents was larger in Red districts at 25.1 million compared with 22.7 million in Blue districts, the study found.
“Poverty and opportunity should be more than a top-of-the-ticket conversation,” Kneebone said. “Challenges of poverty cut across the political divide and touch all 436 congressional districts.”
Poverty has been growing in largely suburban areas in regions that were battered by the collapse of the housing market in the late 2000s, the Brookings analysis found.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-market housing price index plunged 34 percent from its peak in April 2006 to its bottom in February 2012. The drop wasn't evenly spread: so-called “sand states” and some regions of the south were especially hard-hit, with Las Vegas's index dropping by 62 percent between its top and bottom. Homes are often a family's most valuable asset, so the decline wiped out a tremendous amount of household wealth, and in many cases consumers weren't able to make good on their mortgage payments.
“A top priority should be forging a bipartisan federal anti-poverty agenda that increases access to opportunity for the nation's residents and families, wherever they live,” Kneebone wrote in her analysis.
To contact the author of this story: Jeanna Smialek in Washington at jsmialek1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sarah McGregor at smcgregor5@bloomberg.net, Randy Woods
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