As Iran and the United States begin a new round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, Tehran's ballistic missile programme has emerged as a major sticking point.
While Thursday's talks are largely focused on Iran's nuclear activities, US officials have made clear that the missile issue remains a “big problem”.
Rubio Flags Missile Concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran's refusal to discuss its ballistic missile programme complicates diplomacy, the Financial Times reported. “[Iran] refuses to talk about the ballistic missiles to us or to anyone, and that's a big problem,” Rubio said during a visit to Saint Kitts and Nevis.
He warned that the Islamic republic has “thousands of short-range ballistic missiles” capable of threatening US forces and regional partners. Tehran also has naval assets that “threaten shipping and try to threaten the US Navy” and conventional weapons that were “designed to attack the US”, he added.
However, Rubio clarified that the Geneva discussions — involving US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — would be “largely focused on the nuclear programme”, and that Washington hoped “progress can be made”.
Oman is mediating the indirect talks. Its foreign minister Badr Albusaidi met Witkoff and Kushner, according to official statements.
Iran's Position
Iran insists its missile programme is defensive and separate from nuclear negotiations. Iranian leaders say their nuclear activities are peaceful and argue that, under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, they have the right to enrich uranium.
Tehran has also rejected US demands to limit its ballistic missiles or curb support for regional armed groups.
Rubio criticised Iran's insistence on uranium enrichment.
“They don't need to enrich in order to have nuclear energy. They don't need nuclear energy, by the way, they have plenty of natural gas,” he said.
“The fact that they insist, not just on enrichment, but on enrichment and locations located inside of mountains is . . . you would have to lack common sense to not know what that means, or what that could mean.”
Missile Arsenal Under Scrutiny
Western analysts say Iran possesses one of the largest missile stockpiles in the Middle East. Nearly all US bases in the region are within range of Iranian ballistic missiles.
During last year's 12-day conflict with Israel, Iran fired more than 500 medium- to long-range missiles, while Israeli strikes destroyed others on the ground. Experts say Iran may still retain thousands of short-range missiles.
Financial Times reported that Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said Tehran's “missile architecture is the backbone of Iran's deterrence strategy”.
“Iran's security doctrine is fundamentally asymmetric,” he said. “At its core is an extensive missile and UAV arsenal designed to compensate for conventional military weakness and to deter its primary adversaries, meaning the United States and Israel.”
Lynette Nusbacher, a former senior UK intelligence adviser, said estimates of Iran's arsenal remain debated, but its ability to strike nearby US bases is widely acknowledged. “They have lots of theatre ballistic missiles — maybe thousands — that can definitely be shot at US bases in the Persian Gulf region, and they have anti-ship cruise missiles on fast attack craft,” she said.
ALSO READ: US Levels New Sanctions On Iran's Missile Program, Shadow Fleet
Talks Face Broader Security Question
With negotiations underway in Geneva, the missile issue underscores the broader challenge: for Washington and its allies, limiting Iran's atomic programme may not be enough without addressing its expanding missile capabilities.
For Tehran, however, its missile force remains central to its deterrence strategy and non-negotiable.
ALSO READ: US-Iran Talks Begin In Geneva Today: War To Break Or Truce In Sight? What We Know So Far
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