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FY23 saw multiple headwinds impact the oil and gas sector owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and resultant spike in input costs for midstream/downstream players.
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Additionally, imposition of windfall taxes limited the gains from pricing strength for refiners and upstream players as well. We expect stronger prospects over FY24/25E, led by-
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relatively moderate crude and liquefied natural gas prices,
higher domestic supplies of gas and to a limited extent crude,
completion of expanded gas transportation infrastructure, and
pricing and gas tariff regulation changes which provide visibility on costs/margins.
Softer gross refining margins in Q1 FY24 year-to-date and the potential for promoter (Government of India) led reduction in retail fuels (petrol, diesel) create some downside, but on balance, we see material earnings growth environment across our oil and gas coverage universe, with only a few exceptions.
We remain positive across the space with GAIL India Ltd., Indraprastha Gas Ltd., Mahanagar Gas Ltd., Gujarat Gas Ltd. being preferred names in gas space, Oil India Ltd., Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. in upstream and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd., Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. for oil marketing companies.
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