Up to 20% of global gas supply disrupted during the Middle East conflict may not return even if the war ends, signalling prolonged strain across energy markets, according to Dr Iman Nasseri, managing director for Middle East research at FGE Dubai.
The loss, driven by outages in liquefied natural gas facilities, comes as oil markets remain tight due to reduced flows from the Gulf and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The combined impact has left global energy supply constrained, with limited signs of immediate recovery, Nasseri told NDTV Profit in a televised interview.
Nasseri said the market continues to face a supply shortfall as uncertainty around the conflict persists. "The market is fundamentally short," he said, indicating that supply constraints are driving prices more than sentiment.
Gas Impact
Nasseri said gas supply has taken the largest hit so far, with outages in Qatari liquefied natural gas capacity unlikely to be restored soon.
"About 10 to 20% of the gas is disrupted and will not come back, even if the war situation ends," he said.
The disruption suggests that energy markets may remain constrained even after any ceasefire, as part of the lost supply does not return immediately.
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Supply Tightness
Oil markets remain under pressure due to reduced flows from the Gulf, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global energy supplies.
Nasseri said the market has already priced in a significant loss of supply and is unlikely to stabilise soon. "We're far from a calm crude market in April and May," he said.
He added that it is difficult to separate the impact of sentiment from underlying demand and supply dynamics during the conflict, though pricing in refined products points to a tight physical market.
Infrastructure
Crude oil production infrastructure has not seen major disruption so far, with upstream fields largely unaffected.
Damage has been reported in parts of the transport and processing chain, including refineries, ports and storage facilities. However, Nasseri said these disruptions remain manageable and can be offset by spare capacity.
"The infrastructure that brings the crude oil to the market... these are not at the level of creating distress in the market," he said.
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