.jpg?downsize=773:435 "With 150 Rallies, Will Priyanka Give the Congress an Edge in UP?")
The people of Nangla Gulal, a village in UttarPradesh's Firozabad district, are bitter with the Akhilesh Yadav government foracquiring their land for the Agra-Lucknow expressway. It happened to be one ofthe few villages that actively protested the government's land acquisitiondrive. Nangla Gulal, which was a Samajwadi Party's bastion according to locals,has turned hostile as a result and has decided to “teach the Samajwadis alesson.”
Barely 20 kilometres away, in another village calledDhanpura, a retired army NCO and now a full-time farmer, is very critical of theSP and the BJP.
I cannot remember ever voting for a party other than the SP. The positive momentum about the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections gave me hope. But I have realised that my optimism was misplaced.Retired Army NCO (non-commissioned officer)
Disgruntled Voices
Firozabad and adjoining districts like Etawah andKannauj have traditionally been SP strongholds. And it is not unusual to findvoices very critical of the SP. Elsewhere in the state, there is disappointmentwith the “delay” in the arrival of the BJP's promised achche din. “Kahan hai achche din? Ulta jo badlav aayahai us se hamari zindagi mein musibaten badh gayi hain (Where are the gooddays? The recent changes have added to our woes instead),” a dhaba owner in Sahjahanpur said.
These are some of the many voices which signal thatpolitics in the country's most populous state has entered, as a veteran editorputs it, the “transactional phase.”
To put it in other words, political parties' association with social groups based on primordial considerations is snapping. And it is being replaced by a ‘you-deliver-and-I-will-vote-for-you' attitude.
That the SP cannot be assured of support among the Yadavsand other backward classes and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) not sure ofgetting Dalit votes, as shown in recent surveys, clearly shows thattransactional politics has taken roots in the state.
Equalitarian Distribution of the Mandate
Given the way politics has evolved, will thereported move by the Congress to give Priyanka Gandhi a much larger profile inUP work to the party's advantage? It may, if the Congress is able to sellaspirational dreams.
The most important trend in the last four polls – LokSabha and assembly – is that the verdict has been decisive and each of the fourelections has seen a new winner. Contrary to expectations, the BSP won anabsolute majority in the 2007 assembly polls. The Congress surprised allobservers by doing reasonably well in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Butassembly elections held three years later in 2012 saw the SP winning anabsolute majority. And the BJP swept the subsequent Lok Sabha polls in 2014.
“I call it equalitarian distribution of the mandate.The state's voters have given equal chance to all of the four major parties inthe last four elections,” A K Verma, Political Science professor at the Kanpur-basedChrist Church College and UP coordinator of the Centre for the Study ofDeveloping Societies (CSDS), said recently.
Will Congress Enter into a Pre-Poll Alliance with BSP?
Given the fluidity of the situation, with oldloyalties collapsing, Priyanka as a new face for the Congress with a new set ofcredible promises has the potential to galvanise the party rank and file andperhaps appeal to the voters. Prashant Kishor, the political strategist whohelped Nitish Kumar win the tough electoral battle in Bihar, has set thistarget for the Congress.
While in Lucknow, I heard rumours of Kishor meetingBSP chief Mayawati twice and convincing her of a possible pre-poll alliancewith the Congress. Mayawati, hitherto known to say no to any pre-poll tie-up,may be enthused by a seemingly resurgent Congress with Priyanka in the leadrole. The alliance may fructify as per Prashant Kishor's plans and has thepotential to enter the electoral fray in pole position.
Will Congress' Trump Card Work?
- Disgruntled and disillusioned people in SP bastionsgive the impression that the anti-incumbency factor may play against Akhilesh inUP.
- Priyanka beingprojected as the face of Congress may help in mobilising grass-root workers andappealing to voters.
- There are chances that Congress may enter into apre-poll alliance with BSP.
- A possible tie-up may save Congress ignominy of anotherwise embarrassing electoral loss, where the party last won polls in 1989.
- Congress is also fraught with the dilemma of usingits only trump card in a decisive poll, which can affect Priyanka's stature nationally.
Sole Trump Card
The right question to ask is not whether thePriyanka strategy will work for the Congress in UP or not. A more pertinentquestion is whether the Congress is ready to field Priyanka in a very toughelectoral battle in UP. If it works, she may become the numero uno leader in the Congress, eclipsing Rahul Gandhi. If itdoes not, the Congress may have wasted what many believe is its sole trumpcard.
The Congress may hedge the risk by giving Priyankaa limited role. She may be asked to campaign extensively in limited pockets to boostthe party's success rate in those areas. A possible tie-up with the BSP andsignificant improvement over its current tally of 28 seats in the UP assemblymay still be seen as a moral victory for the Congress in the run-up to 2019 LokSabha elections.
(The writer is Consulting Editor, Business Standard, and contributes regularly to The Quint on politics and contemporary issues.)
Also read:
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BJP Should Rethink Mixing Up ‘Vikas' and ‘Exodus' Narratives in UP
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