Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday released its Monsoon Forecast for 2026, predicting that the upcoming southwest monsoon will be below normal at 94% of the long period average, with an error margin of ±5%. The LPA for the four-month monsoon season from June to September stands at 868.6 mm. Skymet expects the overall rainfall spread to remain in the 90–95% range of LPA, keeping the season firmly in the below-normal category.
Skymet's Report
The Skymet agency said it has retained its earlier assessment made in January 2026, when it had already indicated that the monsoon would likely be subpar. While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a key influencing factor, Skymet noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also has the potential to shape monsoon circulation.
A strong positive IOD can partially offset the adverse impact of El Niño. For 2026, the IOD is expected to remain neutral or marginally positive, which may support a reasonably good onset of the monsoon. However, Skymet cautioned that the second half of the season could be vulnerable, raising concerns about uneven and biased rainfall distribution.
On the regional front, central and western India, which form the core rain-fed agricultural belt, are likely to receive inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are expected to record less-than-normal rain, particularly during August and September. In contrast, eastern and northeastern India are projected to fare better than most other regions.
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Skymet's probability outlook for the June–September season shows a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall and a 30% risk of drought, while the likelihood of excess rainfall is nil. Monthly projections indicate June near normal, but rising rainfall deficits are expected towards August and September.
"We had shared Skymet's perspective on the monsoon last week, which indicated that it is likely to be below normal. The preliminary forecast given in January had already suggested that there would be a below-normal, sub-par monsoon this year," GP Sharma, president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet, told NDTV Profit.
"There are two key factors related to monsoon performance — one is El Niño and the other is the IOD, a key sea-surface temperature phenomenon that dictates Indian monsoon strength. El Niño has adversely affected our monsoon in the past and is expected to do so this season as well. However, the monsoon will begin on time and on a satisfactory note in June, but is likely to weaken halfway through the season," Sharma added.
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