- India's south-west monsoon has recorded the fifth-driest June-July in 126 years with 24% below normal rainfall
- Around 60% of India's 741 districts have faced deficient or large deficient rainfall from June 1 to July 17
- Bihar, Kerala, and Telangana experienced the highest rainfall deficits, with Bihar at 46% below normal
India's south-west monsoon has recorded its fifth-driest June-July period in 126 years, with rainfall running 24% below normal, according to data from the India Meteorological Department cited in an SBI Research report. Around 60% of the country's 741 districts have witnessed deficient or large deficient rainfall between June 1 and July 17.
Bihar has been hit hardest, with 95% of its 38 districts facing rainfall deficits, followed by Kerala at 86% and Telangana at 85%. Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat and Punjab have also reported deficits across 64 to 81% of their districts. State-wise, Bihar recorded a 46% rainfall shortfall, Punjab 38%, and Kerala and Telangana between 33 and 34%, among the worst since June.
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Despite the weak start, SBI Research expects the impact on food inflation to remain limited. The report cautioned that "low rains per se do not lead to higher food prices" and that the outcome depends heavily on the spatial and monthly distribution of rain rather than the aggregate shortfall. It cited 2018 as a precedent, when below-average rainfall caused no meaningful spike in food inflation because of better distribution across regions and months.
India is staring at one of its weakest rainy seasons this year.
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The one clear exception was 2009, an El Nino year when food inflation touched 13.1%. However, SBI Research attributed that spike largely to a combination of factors beyond weather, including a 40% hike in minimum support prices, a 23.5% pay commission incArease, and a farm loan waiver worth nearly Rs 60,000 crore, which together generalised inflationary pressure across the economy.
For 2026, the report pegs average food inflation for the June-September period at around 6%, notably lower than the 7.7% and 8.2% recorded in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, currently neutral at minus 0.06 degrees Celsius as of July 12, could turn positive during August-September, which would support the monsoon's revival in the second half of the season, though forecasts show wide variation in both timing and strength of this shift, the report added.
ALSO READ: El Nino Remains A Concern Even As Rainfall Deficit Narrows
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