Economic Survey 2026 Live Updates: Undervalued Rupee Offsets US Tariff Impact

The Economic Survey highlighted that more secondary market liquidity will help in better price SDLs. The farm supply prospects will strengthen farm incomes and rural demand. The government is expected to remain on consolidation trajectory. States' debt, deficit trend underline is needed for fiscal calibration. The country needs to anchor fertiliser decisions in soil, crop requirements, as per the Survey.

With the Union Budget just around the corner, the Ministry of Finance has released the Economic Survey for 2025/26, in which it has issued a warning on 'highly-leveraged' AI infrastructure, which, upon failing, could have a cascading effect on global markets, potentially leading to an economic crisis worse than the 2008 Financial Crisis. 

The survey, which has highlighted three potential market scenarios that could play out globally in 2026, has given a 10-20% possibility of a systemic shock where financial, technological and geopolitical stresses could amplify each other and have a cascading effect.

READ FULL STORY HERE

The Survey said high-frequency data for Q3 shows a healthy investment activity. It needs a holistic roadmap balancing energy security and food security. The climate action is a core component of India development strategy. Trade deals with US, others will support India's export momentum, as per the Survey. The energy security objectives must not compromise the food security, it added.

India's economy is set to grow 7.4% in FY26, reaffirming its position as the world's fastest‑growing major economy, even as the global economy grapples with heightened uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation and financial market volatility, the Economic Survey 2025–26 said.

The Survey, tabled in Parliament on Thursday, paints a picture of strong domestic momentum, resilient macroeconomic fundamentals, and a cautiously optimistic outlook for FY27. It also marks what the Economic Survey calls "India's strongest macroeconomic performance in decades." READ FULL STORY HERE

Farmers are growing ethanol-related grains over pulses, oilseeds. India disbursed Rs 836 billion as capex loans to states till Jan. 4, 2026. The document said tensions can emerge between Aatmanirbharta in energy, food. India needs to retain more fiscal policy freedom in the current global setup. The Centre must ensure government incentives don't favour one crop over others. The new FRBM aim may be considered at end of 16th finance panel period . The demand is buoyant on GST cuts and softer inflation, as per the Survey. 

The Economic Survey highlighted that the sustained tax reform will bolster revenues and cut extra borrow need. The economic policy must focus on supply stability and buffer creation. The policy must focus on route and payment system diversification and cultivating strategic indispensability, as per the Survey.

India's Economic Survey said that the country must build "strategic indispensability" as it heads into FY27, with global trade and capital flows now shaped by tariffs and economic statecraft. The survey projects real gross domestic product growth of 6.8% to 7.2% in FY27, and puts FY26 growth at 7.4% in the First Advance Estimates, with domestic demand driving activity.

India's macro position remains strong, it said, adding that, howver, the external setting has changed. India's performance "has collided with a global system that no longer rewards macroeconomic success with currency stability, capital inflows, or strategic insulation," Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran wrote. READ FULL STORY HERE

#EconomicSurvey2026 flags stronger growth outlook, raises GDP forecast, and flags global risks.

Focus on tariffs, external headwinds, and a changing base year as key watchpoints ahead of #UnionBudget2026.@Shrimichoudhary with more key highlights. pic.twitter.com/QPfz6bFyWx

— NDTV Profit (@NDTVProfitIndia) January 29, 2026

 

According to the Eco Survey, the next phase of GST reforms can focus on e-way bill system. However, the investor reluctance to commit to India warrants examination. The document highlighted that the government sees steady economic growth and needs caution, not pessimism. Centre can get more receipts from equity sale in some PSUs and contains interest costs via active debt management going forward.

The economic survey said ''it does not hurt to have undervalued rupee amid US tariffs'. The global risks are manageable however, the country must keep buffers. The domestic demand underpins the FY26 economic growth. The balance of risks around growth are broadly even, it added.

The Eco Survey said India's demand remains resilient and private investment intentions are improving. The CPI base year revision will impact the inflation assessment. The rupee valuation is not accurately showing India's economic fundamentals. The CPI base year revision warrants a careful study of price dynamics. 

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025–26 in Parliament on Thursday. Read Full Text Of Document Here

The survey highlights firming in inflation seen going forward while the consumption demand looks resilient. The global risks look manageable. However, the country must keep buffers and policy credibility, according to Eco Survey. 

• Growth estimates surpass FY25 economic survey estimates
• Domestic demand underpins FY26 economic growth
• GST rate changes support demand and revenue resilience
• India's GDP grew on structural reforms
• The final private consumption expenditure is at 61.5% of GDP
• Final private consumption expenditure is highest since FY12
• Data shows strong economic momentum in recent months

• The economic survey said India's fiscal deficit has dropped from 9.2% (FY21) to 4.8% (FY25). The target 4.4% (FY26).
• The Centre’s revenue buoyancy driven by strong direct taxes and record GST collections despite rate rationalisation.
• The capex scaled up to 4% of GDP (effective) — highest since independence.
• Coming to GST 2.0, the two‑rate structure corrected inverted duties and mass-consumption goods became cheaper.

#BudgetSession2026

Union Finance Minister @nsitharaman lays papers on the table.@nsitharamanoffc @FinMinIndia @LokSabhaSectt pic.twitter.com/SQBrb0ALpE

— SansadTV (@sansad_tv) January 29, 2026

 

 

India remains the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year, according to the Economic Survey. The economy is driven by domestic demand, strengthening investment cycle, and resilient services sector. The manufacturing up 8.4%, services up 9.3% in H1 FY26.

The India-US trade deal talks are likely to conclude in 2026, according to the Economic Survey. The global situation does not pose immediate macroeconomic stress for India while the fiscal prudence is on track, indicates adherence to the budgeted glide path, as per the Survey. The domestic economy remains on stable footing, it added.

According to Economic Survey 2026, India's GDP grew on structural reforms and policy steps despite US tariffs. The data shows strengthening econ momentum in recent months on reforms. The global conditions translate to external uncertainties for India, according to the document. The outlook for India's growth remains steady amid global uncertainties.

The government's fiscal trajectory stands out amid elevated global debt while the downside risks to global growth are prominent. The stability to global growth is fragile. GST rate cut changes will support demand and revenue resilience, according to the Eco Survey. 

The Economic Survey has pegged India's FY26 GDP growth at 7.4%. India's medium-term growth potential is around 7%. The FY27 GDP growth is seen at 6.8-7.2%. 

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tables Economic Survey 2025-26.

Finance Minister is set to present the Union Budget on Sunday, Feb. 1, marking her ninth consecutive one!

Since assuming office in July 2019, and delivering her maiden Budget the same year, Sitharaman has presented eight Budgets, including an interim Budget in February 2024.

But who holds the record for the most Budgets presented? It's Morarji Desai, who has delivered a total of 10 Budgets, including two interim Budgets. Desai was the finance minister between 1959 and 1963, and then again from 1967 to 1969.

Read more: Union Budget 2026: Morarji Desai To Nirmala Sitharaman — Who Has Presented The Most Budgets?

"India's democracy and demography is a big hope to the world today. This is an opportunity to send across a message to the global community through this temple of democracy - of our capability, of our dedication to democracy, of honouring the decisions made through democratic processes. The world welcomes and accepts this,'' said PM Modi.

''Today, the country is advancing. This is not the time for obstruction. This is the time for solution. Today, the priority is not obstruction, but solution...I urge all MPs to come and let us speed up and strengthen the era of important solutions for the country. We should go ahead towards last mile delivery,'' he added.

"It is natural for the attention of the country to be towards the Budget...Now, we have swiftly taken off on 'Reform Express'' said PM Modi.

#WATCH | Budget session | PM Narendra Modi says, "It is natural for the attention of the country to be towards the Budget. But the identity of this Government has been reform, perform and transform. Now, we have swiftly taken off on 'Reform Express'. I express gratitude to all… pic.twitter.com/p9JpR7teTf

— ANI (@ANI) January 29, 2026

"The country is coming out of long-term pending problems and confidently walking the path of long-term solutions...In all our decisions, the progress of the country is our goal. But all our decisions are human-centric, our role and schemes are human-centric. We will contest against technology, we will adapt to technology, we will accept the capability of technology. But with this, we will not undermine human-centric system. Understanding the importance of sensitiviteness, in partnership with technology, we will go ahead,'' said PM Modi speaks at start of Budget session.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks to the media ahead of the tabling of the Economic Survey. 

Watch here:

Speaking at the start of the Budget Session of Parliament. May both Houses witness meaningful discussions on empowering citizens and accelerating India’s development journey. https://t.co/tGqFvc4gup

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) January 29, 2026

Market sentiment, in particular, hinges on several factors, including the tax structure. According to Anand Rathi Group Founder Anand Rathi, reducing transactional taxes such as the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) and lowering personal income tax rates would help trigger a market rally. 

Rathi argued that to boost investor confidence, the government should rationalise capital gains tax and reduce personal income tax in the upcoming budget. Easing these tax burdens, Rathi said, would encourage greater retail participation, improve domestic investors' net returns, and lift overall market sentiment.

Read the full story here.

As Budget 2026 approaches, much of the debate remains centred on fiscal discipline and capital expenditure. But a contrarian proposal from Saurabh Mukherjea has shifted the spotlight. India's small and mid-sized enterprises, which account for the bulk of job creation but have seen little benefit from the post-pandemic recovery.

India's economic rebound, he says, has been sharply K-shaped, with smaller firms struggling while larger corporates continue to compound profits. That divergence matters because of where employment sits. "Eighty percent of the jobs are created in companies with less than Rs 1 crore PAT," Mukherjea said.

According to Mukherjea, such a tax cut could be financed by trimming 10-15% of the government's capex budget without derailing fiscal consolidation.

Read the full story here.

CEA Nageswaran, in an OpEd in Mint, highlighted five economic themes to watch out for ahead of Economic Survey 2026:

• India's Resilient GDP Growth Amid Geopolitical Risk Premium

The CEA says that as of now, estimated growth in real terms is 7.4%, and that India has "sustained growth since the pandemic and has roughly halved the Union government’s fiscal deficit as a proportion to gross domestic product". This is based on the projected 2025-26 budget deficit announced in February 2025, and despite significantly ramping up public infrastructure investment.

• Fiscal Prudence

On the point of fiscal prudence, CEA Nageswaran says that, "Deficit reduction has been accompanied by an improvement in the quality of fiscal expenditure. Fiscal prudence, conservatism and economic growth earned the country three credit-rating upgrades last year."

• Rupee-Dollar Trend

He adds that the price of one dollar in Indian rupees has gone up by more than 6% since the beginning of 2025. "Over this shorter horizon, several other emerging-market currencies have performed better. However, when the frame is widened to a six-year window beginning February 2020, most major emerging-market currencies, including the Indian rupee, have weakened against the dollar by a similar magnitude."

• India's Manufacturing Base

The CEA emphasises that countries that have "built a strong manufacturing base, export manufactured goods and run external surpluses have enjoyed strong and stable currencies." However, he says that they did so at a time "when the climate was not a pressing concern and energy-transition considerations were distant."

• AI Boom and Job Security

The CEA pointed out that, "Rapid advances in artificial intelligence over the last year have raised new questions for a nation that needs to generate at least 8 million jobs annually." This comment also comes amid chatter around job loss, as well as job creation, in the age of AI.

The Economic Survey 2026 typically reviews key aspects of the economy, including GDP growth patterns, inflation and monetary policy developments, the fiscal landscape, external sector performance (trade, forex trends), and social indicators such as jobs, health, and education. It also features dedicated chapters on new and emerging policy themes.

For markets, the focus will be on the Survey’s assessment of global risks, the roadmap for fiscal consolidation, and sector‑specific insights — all of which shape sentiment across equities, bonds, and currencies. Although the Survey does not announce policies, it often sets the tone for the Budget and influences the direction of future economic strategy.

Ahead of the Budget 2026, sources told NDTV Profit's Rishabh Bhatnagar that the Modi government is planning to expand the definition of startups to promote innovation in deep-tech in the upcoming Union Budget.

The sources added that the broader definition of startups will also allow flexibility for companies to pivot fields, and the new definition aims to incentivise more companies to innovate and take risks. 

Keep in mind that just last week, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the government has readied draft guidelines for the second Rs 10,000 crore Fund of Funds for Startups with a clear focus on deeptech segments. 

Read the full story here.

India’s economic expansion has frequently outpaced the forecasts presented in the Economic Survey. For instance, growth for 2025-26 is expected to reach 7.4%, higher than the 6.3-6.8% range projected in the pre‑Budget document.

In 2023-24, GDP growth came in at 9.2%, well above the Survey’s estimate of 6-6.8%.

For 2024-25, however, the economy grew 6.5%, broadly in line with the projected 6.5-7% range. The analysis shows that the only significant undershoot occurred in 2022-23, when actual growth of 7.6% fell short of the 8-8.5% projection.

In 2021-22, the Economic Survey did not provide a forecast due to the uncertainties surrounding Covid‑19. Growth for that year eventually stood at 9.7%, driven largely by a favourable base effect.

By contrast, 2020-21 recorded a contraction of 5.8%, reflecting the severe economic disruptions caused by the pandemic and nationwide lockdowns.

There's a bunch of terms and concepts in the soon-to-be-tabled Economic Survey, that might seem like jargon, but are important in knowing how the Economic Survey and Union Budget impact us.

NDTV Profit has a list of articles that you can go through, for better understanding of the document to be presented today.

• What Is Fiscal Deficit?
• What Is A Subsidy?
• What Is The Union Budget?
• What Is Disinvestment?
• What Is Revenue Deficit?
• What Are Indirect Taxes?

The Economic Survey 2026 is scheduled to be presented in Parliament between 11 a.m. and noon. The proceedings can be viewed live on Sansad TV, as well as on NDTV Profit.

Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran will later brief the media on the key insights, trends, and the country’s projected growth path.

The complete document will also be made available online on the Union Budget website.

You can watch FM Sitharaman tabling the Economic survey right here:

The Economic Survey, typically tabled a day before the Budget, gives an overview of what the Budgetary panel had in mind before framing the key policy decisions in the main Budget document. 

The Survey is traditionally presented by India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) before both Houses of Parliament on Jan 31 annually,  and it is prepared by the Finance Ministry's Department of Economic Affairs (Economic Division).

Although it does not introduce new policies or tax measures, it offers the analytical groundwork that shapes the final decisions presented in the Budget.