(Bloomberg) -- The dollar's rally is set to run out of steam as major central banks cooperate under an unofficial accord to stem its strength, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.
The greenback weakened against the euro and the yen after a poll showing the U.S. presidential race tightening removed some luster off the U.S. currency. Traders are also wagering the path of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve will be slow after a forecast hike in December.
Leaders of the world's most influential central banks agreed in February at a meeting in Shanghai that excessive dollar strength is negative for global growth, according to a Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. With a so-called "Shanghai co-op" understanding in place, global central banks are working to prevent a repeat of history when a 20 percent rise in the dollar in the two years ending 2015 damped prices of global commodities, reduced profits of multinationals, and triggered an appreciation in the yuan, exacerbating a slowdown in the global recovery.
"We expect the dollar to remain in a broad ‘Shanghai co-op' range versus the euro and yen, despite its recent appreciation, because this is what is in the interest of all the relevant actors," Fels wrote in a blog post Monday on Pimco's website. "The memories of the 2014–2015 strong dollar episode are still very much alive among policy makers and will likely limit the appetite for excessive monetary policy divergence and competitive currency depreciation."
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major peers, fell 0.3 percent as of 1:04 p.m. in New York, after gaining 2.2 percent in October. The greenback dropped 0.7 percent $1.1056 per euro and declined 0.4 percent to 104.36 yen.
Republican Donald Trump has 46 percent of support to Hillary Clinton's 45 percent among likely voters, an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows.
To contact the reporters on this story: Susanne Barton in New York at swalker33@bloomberg.net, Tatiana Darie in New York at tdarie1@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net, Paul Cox
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