(Bloomberg) -- One of the few bright spots for President Park Geun-hye as she fights to stay in power: South Koreans are split on who should replace her.
Tens of thousands of people rallied in Seoul on Saturday to demand that Park step down over an influence-peddling scandal that has spawned protests across the nation. Authorities on Sunday arrested two of her former aides for allegedly helping Choi Soon-sil, a long-time friend of Park who is facing charges over using her relationship with the president for personal gain.
Park has replaced key staff members, dumped her prime minister and finance minister, and issued two nationally televised apologies in a bid to bolster an approval rating that reached a historic low of 5 percent last week. She also said she would submit herself to questioning from prosecutors, a voluntary step because the presidency provides her with immunity.
For all that, many analysts still see it as likely that Park will hang on through her single five-year term until the next scheduled election in late 2017. Her ruling Saenuri party is split on whether to support her, and the main opposition parties are also divided, leaving no clear front-runner to step in if she resigns – a move that would trigger an election in 60 days. Impeachment would take even longer.
“Up to now, there is little appetite for impeachment and Park is employing rear-guard actions such as the reshuffles designed to appease immediate public anger,” said Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Current circumstances increase the likelihood of a political reconfiguration in advance of South Korea's presidential elections next year.''
To read about how the scandal is impacting the economy, click here.
The uncertainty over Park's future threatens to leave South Korea rudderless for more than a year as economic growth remains lackluster and some of the nation's biggest companies suffer through embarrassing setbacks.
While nobody has officially declared their candidacy, leading in polls so far are United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Moon Jae-in, runner-up in the 2012 election and a former leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea. A Realmeter opinion poll conducted in the last week of October showed Ban with a slight lead over Moon, followed by several mayors and the leader of a breakaway opposition group. No one polled more than 21 percent.
Ban, 72, has less than two months before his term at the UN expires. While he hasn't formally joined a party or said he plans to run, news reports link him to Saenuri, which is split over the scandal. A party meeting on Friday began with shouting and cursing between factions before it was declared closed to reporters.
To read about why Park denied she was in a cult, click here.
Both Ban and Moon have their strengths and weaknesses, according to Choi Chang-ryul, a professor of liberal arts at Yong In University. Ban is bolstered by his experience as an international statesman, though could suffer because he is viewed as aligned with Park. Moon is seen as well prepared due to his 2012 campaign, but critics say he's too soft on North Korea.
“We are likely to see a stand-off between political parties and the presidential office for some time, during which the public will continue demanding her resignation,” Choi said. “How things will evolve after this is hard to predict.”
A resignation also raises legal questions over whether mayors and governors would be eligible to run since laws require them to resign 90 days before an election. While Yonhap cited an official at South Korea's election commission saying they only needed to resign 30 days in advance of a special election, Saenuri lawmaker Chung Jin-suk told reporters on Saturday that they couldn't run.
Public Outcry
“Low approval ratings don't necessarily mean the majority wants Park to resign,'' Chung said. “A call for Park to resign will probably help bind progressive left wings, but I don't think the public wants to see them occupy the Blue House and drag her down.''
Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, a potential candidate, said in a Facebook post last week that he would continue to call for Park to resign even if that made him ineligible to run in the next election.
The main opposition parties have been more equivocal. The Democratic Party of Korea, which has the second-most seats in parliament, has said it will push for Park's resignation if she doesn't withdraw her nominee for prime minister and accept a special prosecutor for the investigation. The People's Party, the second-largest opposition group, wants Park to appoint a prime minister acceptable to all sides and then allow that person to handle national affairs.
Either way, public pressure is growing. Police said about 45,000 people rallied in Seoul this weekend to demand Park's resignation, while protest organizers estimated the crowd at 200,000, according to Yonhap News. Photos showed protesters holding banners reading “Park Geun-hye resign” and “Park Geun-hye out.”
Despite the public outrage, a resignation is less likely than a scenario where the president hands over power to the prime minister until the investigation ends, according to Park Tae-woo, a politics commentator and professor at Korea University's Institute of Sustainable Development.
“You can't force a president to step down based on public sentiment,” Park said. “It would take months for the prosecutors to actually probe Park and reveal her wrongdoings.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Kanga Kong in Seoul at kkong50@bloomberg.net, Jiyeun Lee in Seoul at jlee1029@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Ten Kate at dtenkate@bloomberg.net, Andy Sharp
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