India may not face restrictions related to purchase of Russian crude oil, following the US Supreme Court's ruling that annulled the sweeping tariffs levied by US President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a report said, citing analysts.
“I do expect that India will maintain a healthy relationship with Russia, including on energy,” Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told CNBC International. He added that while India may trim purchases, it is unlikely to halt them entirely.
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows India has imported 1.16 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil so far in February, lower than its 2025 average of 1.71 mbd.
Muyu Xu, senior crude analyst at Kpler, told the news channel that “market chatter indicates” that Indian refiners had refrained from booking Russian oil cargoes after an interim U.S.-India trade deal earlier this month. However, following Friday's Supreme Court ruling, Xu said India now has room to maintain imports in the range of 800,000 to 1 million barrels per day.
According to Shidore, the court's decision limits Trump's ability to amend tariffs for reasons unrelated to trade, such as India's purchases of Russian oil. India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not respond to media queries.
A Sensitive Trade Issue
India's Russian oil purchases have strained ties with Washington. In August last year, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, accusing New Delhi of “fueling [Russia's] war machine” in Ukraine. Combined with existing 25% reciprocal tariffs, total duties on Indian exports to the U.S. rose to 50% — the highest among U.S. trading partners at the time.
Also Read: Russia Accuses US Of Using Unfair Means To Stop India From Buying Russian Oil
After an interim trade agreement, US tariffs on Indian goods were cut to 18%. In a Feb. 6 executive order, Trump removed the punitive 25% tariff, stating that India had “committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil” and would increase purchases of US energy.
However, the joint U.S.-India statement announcing the interim deal did not explicitly mention curbing Russian oil imports. It did note India's intention to purchase $500 billion worth of US goods, including energy, over five years.
Alexandra Hermann, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said India's pledges to cut Russian oil imports “were never formally codified and always appeared difficult to implement in practice.”
She added that India's energy strategy is driven largely by price and diversification concerns. “US crude is unlikely to displace Russian barrels in any meaningful way,” Hermann said.
India currently imports 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day of U.S. crude, according to Kpler. As of end-January, Russia remained India's largest crude supplier, while the U.S. ranked sixth, data from Kpler and Rystad Energy show.
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