Despite the global sugar market expecting a marginal surplus in 2025-26, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) has warned that El Niño-linked weather risks could push the market into a deficit in the following season.
In its third revised outlook for the 2025-26 season, the ISO projected global sugar production at a record 182 million tonnes, up sharply from 175.9 million tonnes a year ago.
Global demand is estimated at 179.8 million tonnes compared with 179.1 million tonnes last year, resulting in a surplus of around 2.2 million tonnes, reversing the previous season's deficit of 3.2 million tonnes.
The body, however, flagged concerns for 2026-27, estimating a global deficit of 262,000 tonnes amid fears that El Niño conditions could disrupt rainfall patterns in key producing countries.
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It also projected lower export availability at 64.2 million tonnes in 2025-26 against 64.8 million tonnes a year ago, while imports are expected to decline to 63.3 million tonnes from 65.1 million tonnes. End-season stocks are pegged at 79.4 million tonnes, marginally higher than 78.9 million tonnes last year.
The global outlook comes days after India prohibited sugar exports till September 2026 to contain domestic prices and ensure adequate local supplies.
India, the world's second-largest sugar producer after Brazil, had earlier permitted limited exports of 1.59 million tonnes, anticipating surplus output.
However, lower cane yields and concerns over monsoon disruptions prompted a policy reversal.
The export curb has already pushed global sugar prices higher, with both raw and white sugar futures gaining after the announcement.
ALSO READ: India's Sugar Production Surges 28% In 2025-26, Cooperative Requests MSP Hike
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