US President Donald Trump may be talking up a near-term end to the Iran conflict, but market experts aren't buying the optimism just yet. In fact, reactions to his latest address suggest a widening gap between political signalling and on-ground realities — especially for oil, global risk sentiment, and Indian equities. Trump struck a dual tone—declaring that strategic objectives are “nearing completion” while warning of intensified strikes over the next two to three weeks. That mix of escalation and diplomacy has left markets jittery, with crude and equities reacting to both possibilities simultaneously.
Matt Orton of Raymond James Investment Management said companies should stay focused on safeguarding profitability amid the noise. He pointed to a growing disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, suggesting markets may be overpricing a quick resolution. Orton also noted that Trump's comments appear designed to create expectations of a near-term wrap-up. However, he cautioned that signalling an end does not necessarily translate into one—particularly in a conflict with multiple moving parts.
Market expert James Bowden struck a more sceptical note, arguing that Iran is unlikely to back down quickly. “This is not a short-cycle conflict,” he said, adding that Iran appears prepared for a prolonged engagement—much like the US. Crucially for markets, Bowden does not see meaningful negotiation space emerging from Trump's stance. He also warned against assuming a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying any resumption of flows would depend on actors beyond the immediate conflict.
Oil Shock Not Done Yet
For Indian markets, market expert Ajay Bagga flagged oil as the key transmission channel of risk. He expects disruptions to persist for the next one to two months, with the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain shut for at least three weeks. That has direct implications for inflation, currency stability, and corporate margins in India—none of which are fully priced in yet, according to Bagga.
Bagga recommends a defensive stance, with 15–20% cash allocation appearing prudent in the current environment. He also highlighted foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows as a critical pressure point for Indian equities, calling for greater policy attention. “Markets are clearly worried about further escalation,” he said, adding that India has not yet taken sufficient safeguarding measures to cushion against prolonged disruption.
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