- Brokerages favor Titan, Hindalco, and affordable housing NBFCs amid rural demand risks and margin pressure
- Revenue growth is projected in high single digits; profit growth in low single digits due to margin squeeze
- Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services to lead revenue; Utilities expected to decline in revenue
Brokerages turned selective across consumer, metals, real estate and financials, with positive calls on Titan, Hindalco and affordable housing NBFCs, while flagging rural demand risks and margin compression across sectors.
Morgan Stanley India Strategy – Ridham Desai
Revenue growth expected in high single digits; profit growth likely low single digits due to margin compression
India transitioning into higher earnings growth phase supported by policy stimulus
Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services to lead revenue growth
Utilities expected to see revenue decline
Earnings growth led by Communication Services, Materials and Consumer Discretionary
Bharti Airtel and Tata Steel likely biggest contributors to Sensex earnings
SBI expected to be weakest performer
Margins expected to expand for ~45% of coverage
Energy and Financials likely to see the biggest margin compression
Macquarie on Rural Weakness
Weak monsoon and fertiliser availability risk rural demand
Dabur has highest rural exposure at 45–50%, followed by Britannia at 40–45%
Nestle least exposed at ~20%
Prefer premium consumer plays: Titan, Marico, HUL, Trent, Lenskart
Cautious on rural-heavy names like Dabur and Britannia
Autos with high rural exposure such as Hero, Maruti and M&M more vulnerable
Prefer TVS Motor and Ashok Leyland
Weak rural demand could also hurt cement demand
Investec on Titan
Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 4,849
Jewellery growth remains robust despite higher gold prices
CaratLane growth modest; watches affected by smartwatch drag
Eyewear and fragrances segments showing strong growth
Women's bags driving momentum; Taneira continues to lag
Morgan Stanley on Titan
Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 4,529
Q4 domestic jewellery growth at 46% YoY
Buyer growth high single digits; ticket sizes increased sharply
Gold coin revenue tripled YoY
Plain gold and studded segments saw strong growth
Citi on Titan
Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 4,750
Jewellery growth accelerating but studded mix declining
Competitive intensity remains high
Margin defence key to sustaining valuations
Jefferies on Real Estate
DLF – Maintain Buy; TP Rs 800
Lodha – Maintain Buy; TP Rs 1,215
Godrej Properties – Maintain Buy; TP Rs 2,420
Prestige Estates – Maintain Buy; TP Rs 1,635
Oberoi Realty – Maintain Hold; TP Rs 1,680
Middle East conflict may slow home-buying decisions in Q1FY27
FY27 pre-sales growth expected to slow to ~6% YoY vs 21% in FY26
Valuations corrected below weak-cycle levels
Preferred picks: DLF, Godrej Properties, Lodha
Nomura on Cement
Price hikes underway but yet to stick
Pan-India cement prices expected to rise ~Rs 15/bag in April
South India hikes ~Rs 30/bag; East ~Rs 20/bag
Industry needs Rs 18–20/bag hike to offset cost inflation
Implementation and sustainability key monitorables
JPMorgan on Pine Labs
Initiate Neutral with TP of Rs 165
Growth in digital payments slowing after early adoption phase
Affordability-led growth cyclical
Margins healthy with scope for expansion
Valuation seen fair
Bernstein on Affordable Housing NBFCs
Sector near inflection point for growth and asset quality
Compelling valuations
Top Picks:
Home First – Outperform; TP Rs 1,430
Aptus Value – Outperform; TP Rs 350
Aadhar Housing – Outperform; TP Rs 600
Aavas Financiers – Market Perform; TP Rs 1,440
PNB Housing – Market Perform; TP Rs 880
HSBC on Indian Hotels
Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 800
Q4 expected to be less impacted
Low double-digit revenue growth forecast
FY27 earnings supported by new hotel additions and acquisitions
HSBC on Metals
Strong Q4 and stronger H1FY27 expected
Higher volumes, stronger prices and weak INR to support margins
Aluminium preferred metal
Top Picks:
Hindalco
Tata Steel
Hindustan Zinc
HSBC on Banks
Strong Q4 earnings expected
Loan growth 5.5% QoQ; deposit growth 3.6% QoQ
Private banks and SFBs expected to deliver healthy EPS growth
PSU banks may see trading losses
Prefer large private banks
Preferred picks: Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI
ALSO READ: Five Stocks To Watch: ICICI Bank, GPIL, Blue Star, JSW Steel, And Nalco
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
