As investors enter Samvat 2083, the market outlook from some of India's best-known investors and market strategists points to opportunities across several sectors, rather than one dominant investment theme. Banking, consumer discretionary, information technology, capital expenditure and export-oriented manufacturing feature prominently in their assessments, although the reasons and investment horizons differ.
The experts also see a market in transition. While corporate earnings and economic activity have remained resilient, the benchmark indices have not fully reflected that strength. The sustainability of India's earnings growth, the trajectory of crude oil prices, global capital flows and the impact of artificial intelligence remain important variables.
-
Indian Markets Turning Corner After Two Tough Years, Says Sandeep Tandon -
NDTV Profit Ignite 2026: Experts See Opportunity In Equities, Stay Bullish For Long-Term -
Buy Right, Sit Tight Does Not Work for Individual Stocks, Says Dinshaw Irani -
'Worst Is Behind': Quant MF Sees Market Bottom, Flags 'Extreme Euphoria' In Midcaps -
India's Mutual Fund Industry Could Become A $1 Trillion Opportunity, Say Fund Managers -
'Foreign Investors Are Baraatis': Raamdeo Agrawal's Take On LTCG Tax -
Stay Invested Through Market Cycles: Raamdeo Agrawal at NDTV Profit Ignite -
Ramesh Damani Remains Bullish On India For Next 20-30 Years, Sees Bargains Amid Market Weakness -
CAS Came After A Long Consultation Process: SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey AT NDTV PROFIT IGNITE -
Aim To Cut FPI Onboarding Time From Mth To Five Days: SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey AT NDTV PROFI
In conversations with NDTV Profit, Nilesh Shah, Pankaj Tibrewal, Pankaj Budhiraja, Ridham Desai, Raamdeo Agrawal and Ramesh Damani shared their expectations for the new Samvat and the sectors and investment approaches they believe deserve attention.
Also Read | Layoffs Are Rising In Tech, But These Skills Are Helping People Unlock Better Pay
Banking Bets
Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, sees opportunities in banking and financial services, premium consumption and modern manufacturing. He distinguishes between the time horizons for these bets, describing banking and premium consumption as medium-term opportunities and manufacturing as a longer-term theme.
Shah believes banks and financial services companies look attractive on both earnings and valuations. The sector has faced significant foreign portfolio investor selling, which has compressed valuations in parts of the market. A reversal in those flows, alongside improving earnings, could support a recovery, he said.
He is also positive on premium consumption, where he expects spending to benefit from the implementation of the Eighth Pay Commission recommendations. Shah estimates that around 20 million government employees and pensioners could receive salary arrears and higher payouts, creating additional spending and investment capacity.
He expects the resulting demand to favour premium products. Drawing a comparison with earlier pay commissions, Shah said the consumption opportunity could move from entry-level cars such as the Maruti 800 to more premium vehicles, including SUVs.
His broader valuation assessment also favours large- and mid-cap stocks over the small-cap segment. Shah said large- and mid-cap valuations were below their historical averages, while small-caps traded at a marginal premium. He favours a marginal overweight in large- and mid-caps and a marginal underweight in small-caps, while retaining room for selective stock picking.
Consumer Shift
Pankaj Tibrewal, who manages equity investments, sees consumer discretionary companies as an opportunity after a prolonged period of expensive valuations. He said the opportunity extends beyond fast-moving consumer goods to home-building products and other discretionary businesses.
Tibrewal believes several consumer companies have become more reasonably valued after being overlooked for five to six years. He also sees a possible change in the market's sector leadership, with business-to-business companies having become relatively expensive compared with parts of the consumer space.
His investment philosophy is to identify businesses before they become popular with the wider market.
"You never create wealth chasing a popular theme. You create wealth to own themes which can become popular later," Tibrewal said.
Shah sees another way to identify consumer opportunities: follow the spending habits of younger Indians. He pointed to changing preferences in food, entertainment, beauty and personal care, electric scooters and online shopping.
He believes companies that have built digital platforms around these habits could benefit as younger consumers spend, transact and invest differently. Shah cited businesses such as Nykaa and Honasa in beauty and personal care, as well as quick-commerce platforms, as examples of companies serving these changing preferences.
His argument is not that every company in these categories will deliver returns, but that investors should pay attention to the businesses gaining from shifts in consumer behaviour.
Export Opportunity
Export-oriented manufacturing emerged as one of the more significant longer-term themes in the discussions, with Tibrewal and Shah seeing opportunities for Indian companies to become part of global supply chains.
Tibrewal said conversations with exporters across sectors had become more encouraging. He cited textile companies reporting order books stretching 12 to 18 months and manufacturers in auto components, forging and casting seeing stronger demand from overseas markets.
He believes the shift in global supply chains and the search for alternatives to China could create opportunities for Indian manufacturers. He also pointed to the potential for companies to scale up exports as overseas customers seek suppliers with competitive costs and manufacturing capacity.
Among the areas he identified were textiles, auto components, forging and casting, electronics manufacturing services, air conditioning and pharmaceutical contract manufacturing. He cautioned, however, that higher freight rates were putting pressure on exporters.
Tibrewal said export-oriented companies could surprise investors over the next four to five years if they execute their expansion plans successfully. The outlook remains subject to global trade policy and the possibility of fresh tariff-related disruption.
Shah also sees manufacturing exports as a more compelling opportunity than services exports. He pointed to the growth in Maruti Suzuki's exports and the potential for its established domestic suppliers to become part of the company's global supply chain.
He also cited free trade agreements and policy measures aimed at improving the manufacturing environment as possible tailwinds. In his view, the opportunity could extend beyond individual exporters to suppliers and component manufacturers that serve them.
IT And AI
Tibrewal is selectively increasing exposure to information technology, particularly mid-cap IT companies that he believes can deliver faster growth. He does not expect artificial intelligence to make the IT services business disappear, but said it would change how companies operate and generate revenue.
The distinction, therefore, is between companies that adapt to the technology and those that struggle to respond to it. Investors need to be selective rather than treat the entire sector as a single opportunity.
Ridham Desai, in his assessment of the broader market, also identified IT services as an area where valuations were becoming more attractive. He said some IT stocks were approaching levels that could offer opportunities, even though their near-term fundamentals may not yet have improved.
Desai's broader concern is that investors are questioning India's medium-term growth prospects, including whether artificial intelligence could weaken the country's advantage in exporting services. He said the market's concern is not necessarily a view that India's growth has already deteriorated, but uncertainty about whether the current pace of earnings growth can be sustained over the longer term.
Market Disconnect
Desai sees an unusual disconnect between the performance of the economy and the stock market. He said economic activity and corporate earnings had held up better than expected, while the Nifty had continued to languish.
In his view, investors are looking beyond near-term earnings and questioning India's ability to sustain growth over a longer period. He also noted that earnings growth in several competing markets had outpaced India's during the period under discussion.
However, Desai believes India's earnings growth is more diversified than that of several other markets, where gains have been concentrated in a smaller number of companies. He expects that distinction to become more important if the global technology trade loses momentum.
Apart from banks and IT services, Desai sees opportunities in consumer companies and capital expenditure-linked businesses. He cited capital goods imports rising by around 20-25% year-on-year as an indicator of stronger investment activity, adding that bank credit growth supported the evidence of a developing capex cycle.
He also believes market breadth could improve as investors begin to look beyond the largest companies. Desai said there were too many inexpensive stocks in the market to ignore, although some of these businesses may not yet have the strongest fundamentals.
His argument is that investors cannot always wait for an improvement in business performance to become obvious. By the time fundamentals turn, valuations may have already moved higher.
Value Hunting
Ramesh Damani sees an opportunity in downstream petrochemical companies, where he believes valuations do not fully reflect the potential of the businesses.
Damani said several companies in the segment were trading at around four to five times current earnings. He estimated that valuations could be closer to 10 times earnings on a normalised basis.
He also cautioned that current profitability may be unusually high because the Gulf conflict has pushed up prices of some end products. Investors, therefore, need to distinguish between earnings that can be sustained and profits arising from temporary price movements.
Beyond petrochemicals, Damani sees opportunities in domestic supply chains and materials such as copper, rare earths and aluminium, as well as businesses linked to defence localisation.
ALSO READ | Want To Build Wealth? Ramesh Damani Says Think In Decades, Not Minutes
His broader advice is to use market corrections to accumulate businesses where the investment thesis remains intact. He said investors should be willing to buy a company at a lower price if its underlying prospects have not changed.
Raamdeo Agrawal, chairman and co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, also emphasised the importance of looking beyond short-term market movements and focusing on the businesses investors own.
Agrawal said investing in equities during a falling market requires courage because uncertainty can weaken conviction. However, he believes investors need to be prepared to become owners of good companies when markets are under pressure.
He urged investors to focus on earnings growth, valuations and balance sheets instead of allowing the daily flow of market news to dictate investment decisions. For him, the central task is to identify businesses that can compound earnings over time and are available at reasonable valuations.
Long View
Shah expects equity returns in the high single digits to low double digits, rather than the 30% gains some investors may anticipate. He has reiterated the importance of disciplined asset allocation and using market corrections to invest for the longer term.
He compared investing with playing a Test match rather than a T20 game. Investors, he said, should not make decisions based on the performance of a single Samvat, while traders need to recognise that their approach and time horizon are different.
Budhiraja also sees scope for a better market year if key macroeconomic risks ease. He said the Indian economy had remained resilient and corporate earnings had improved. At the time of the interview, around 80% of Nifty companies had reported results, with earnings growth running at about 22%, which he described as the strongest in 10 quarters.
He identified crude oil as a key variable for the market. A resolution of the Iran-related tensions and a correction in oil prices could improve India's macroeconomic outlook and support equities, he said.
For investors, the message across the conversations is not to chase a single sector or expect every part of the market to rise together. The opportunities range from banks and consumer businesses to manufacturing exporters and select IT companies, but the experts repeatedly returned to valuation discipline, earnings visibility and the ability to hold investments through volatility.
The new Samvat, in their assessment, could reward investors who distinguish between temporary market weakness and a lasting change in business prospects.
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
