- Gold prices face pressure amid strong US data boosting Fed tightening expectations
- Spot gold holds above $4,300, capped by stronger US dollar and Treasury yields
- Silver rises above $68 but remains vulnerable if key support levels break
Gold prices could remain under pressure in the near term as stronger-than-expected US economic data bolsters expectations of a tighter monetary policy stance from the US Federal Reserve, according to Kotak Securities. While geopolitical tensions in West Asia have eased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, investors are now closely watching upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for cues on interest rates.
Spot gold held above $4,300 per ounce on Tuesday, supported by softer crude oil prices and easing concerns over energy-driven inflation. However, gains remained capped as the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened after robust labour market data reinforced expectations that the Fed could maintain a higher-for-longer rate stance. Markets are currently pricing in around a 70% probability of a December rate hike.
Kotak Securities highlighted key support levels for MCX Gold August futures at Rs 1,53,649. A breach below this level could push prices towards Rs 1,53,092 and subsequently Rs 1,51,290. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 1,55,451, followed by Rs 1,56,008 and Rs 1,57,810.
For spot gold, support levels are placed at $4,296.5, $4,274.8 and $4,204.8 per ounce, while resistance is seen at $4,366.5, $4,388.2 and $4,458.2.
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Silver prices, meanwhile, climbed above $68 per ounce amid improving market sentiment. However, Kotak Securities cautioned that silver remains vulnerable if support levels weaken. Spot silver has support at $67.18, followed by $66.43 and $64.01 per ounce, while resistance is seen at $69.60, $70.35 and $72.77.
MCX Silver July futures have support at Rs 2,42,937, then Rs 2,40,928 and Rs 2,34,422. Resistance levels are pegged at Rs 2,49,442, Rs 2,51,452 and Rs 2,57,958.
The brokerage noted that easing geopolitical risks have reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals. Nevertheless, continued central bank purchases and lingering inflation concerns continue to offer underlying support to bullion prices.
In the broader commodities market, crude oil prices declined as risk premiums eased following renewed commitments from Iran and Israel to halt direct attacks. Weak Chinese demand data also weighed on prices, with China's crude imports falling to around 7.8 million barrels per day in May, the lowest level in more than eight years.
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