- Earnings growth for India Inc is expected to slow to 10% YoY in the March quarter
- Nifty 50 profits may grow 6% YoY, led mainly by financial sector gains
- Rising crude prices and geopolitical tensions have increased input costs across sectors
A volatile global backdrop marked by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions is expected to weigh on India Inc's March quarter earnings. Yet, a handful of large-cap companies are set to stand out with exceptional profit growth.
According to a latest strategy report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, overall earnings growth for its coverage universe is likely to moderate to 10% year-on-year (YoY) in quarter ended March, down from 18% and 15% growth seen in the previous two quarters. The brokerage had earlier estimated a stronger 14% rise, indicating a clear impact of global headwinds.
Earnings Growth Slows Amid Global Pressures
For the Nifty 50, earnings are expected to grow a modest 6% year-on-year, led largely by financial stocks. Revenue and Ebitda for index constituents are likely to rise 13% and 9% year-on-year, respectively.
The late-quarter escalation in the US-Iran conflict pushed crude prices sharply higher, with Brent touching $120 per barrel and WTI nearing $115. This surge has increased input costs across sectors, especially those dependent on crude derivatives, reversing the trend of positive earnings revisions seen in earlier quarters.
MOSL's analysis suggests that while macro headwinds, particularly rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions, are weighing on overall earnings growth, select companies continue to demonstrate strong resilience.
Despite the broader slowdown, MOSL has identified four Nifty companies expected to post stellar profit growth of over 50% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal. Nineteen Nifty stocks are expected to post double-digit profit growth, but the standout performers remain these four names, driven by sector-specific tailwinds ranging from consumption demand to commodity price dynamics.
Eternal
Eternal is likely to be the biggest outperformer, with profit expected to surge 432% year-on-year to Rs 207.5 crore. The growth is driven by strong traction in both food delivery and quick commerce segments.
Net order value (NOV) for food delivery and quick commerce is projected to grow 17.5% and 98.4% YoY, respectively. Blinkit is expected to sustain its rapid expansion, while Hyperpure continues to scale up. Revenue is estimated to jump 180.6% year-on-year to Rs 1,636.5 crore.
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JSW Steel
JSW Steel is expected to post a 77.3% year-on-year rise in profit to Rs 2,830 crore, supported by improved steel realisations and stable volumes.
While higher coking coal costs remain a concern, better net sales realisations (NSRs) are likely to offset cost pressures and support margins during the quarter.
Tata Steel
Tata Steel is also expected to deliver strong growth, with PAT seen rising 55% YoY to Rs 2,630 crore.
Improved realisations and better average selling prices (ASPs), particularly in European operations, are expected to drive earnings despite higher input costs and subdued volumes in certain regions.
Titan Company
Titan is projected to report a 58.7% year-on-year increase in profit to Rs 1,380 crore, driven by strong demand during the festive and wedding season.
Revenue is expected to rise 33.7% year-on-year to Rs 19,940 crore, supported by robust jewellery sales, including higher demand for gold coins amid rising prices. However, margins may face some pressure due to an unfavourable product mix and elevated gold prices.
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