Amid talks of BJP eroding Mamata Banerjee's bastion in West Bengal, another ground breaking prediction turned heads towards the Tamil Nadu State Assembly elections.
According to pollster Axis My India, debutant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam or TVK led by actor turned politician Vijay may have made a bigger than anticipated dent in the political landscape of Dravidian-dominated Tamil Nadu.
Pradeep Gupta's exit polls indicate that Vijay may stay true to his name and actually secure a victory against the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam).
Vijay's TVK is expected to have a neck-to-neck contest with DMK alliance led by stalwart M K Stalin and may bag between 98 and 120 seats, whereas DMK is seen securing 92 to 110 seats.
Notably, the projections also revealed that the bulk of TVK voters consists of first time voters, Gen Z voters, and unemployed voters.
Of all TVK voters, 68% fell between 18 to 19 years of age, 59% fell between 20 to 29 years of age and as age groups progressed, vote shares dipped.
Occupation-wise calculations show that 42% of the TVK voters identified as being unemployed, while 45% were from the private sectors.
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The projections are said to reflect an angst of revolution among the youth and unemployed groups of Tamil Nadu, and would put an end to the decades-old Dravidian politics duopoly.
Vijay's youth-first and children centric campaign on social media had garnered a lot of attention. The leader was also seen encouraging children to "blow whistle" into their parents ears and throw tantrums till they agreed to vote for TVK. However, many child rights activists and organisations have, since then, called out some of his strategies as being a "violation".
Tamil Nadu Child Rights Watch on Wednesday pointed out that TVK founder influenced and emotionally conditioned children to pressure their parents to vote for a particular political party.
Source | DMK+ | ADMK+ | TVK+ | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Axis My India | 92-110 | 22-23 | 98-120 | 0-0 |
JVC | 75-95 | 128-147 | 8-15 | 0-0 |
KAMAKHYA ANALYTICS | 78-95 | 68-84 | 67-81 | 0-0 |
Matrize | 122-132 | 87-100 | 10-12 | 0-6 |
P-Marq | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 1-6 |
Other pollsters like P Marq, Matrize and Kamakhya Analytics anticipate DMK to retain power in, and see AIADMK's ground slipping further.
However, even the AIADMK is a winner in the eyes of JVC, whose calculations estimate that the Edappadi K. Palaniswami led party may regain the sheen it lost after popular leader Jayalalithaa's death in 2016 and capture between 128 and 147 seats.
The Tamil Nadu exit polls, which had painted a clear picture of MK Stalin retaining the helm initially, have since then caused a stir in people's mind. Whether Tamil Nadu has reached for a new political flavour, or has chosen to stick to the status quo will be clear in a matter of two days.
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