- Skymet Weather revises 2026 monsoon forecast to 85% of Long Period Average
- Skymet predicts a 70% probability of drought for the 2026 monsoon season
- India Meteorological Department forecasts rainfall below 94% of Long Period Average
Skymet Weather has revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast downward to 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA), projecting a 70% probability of drought for the season, a sharper downgrade than the India Meteorological Department's own outlook.
The private forecaster's update comes weeks after IMD said in early August that rainfall for August-September was likely to stay below 94% of LPA, citing a strengthening El Nino, even as it flagged some chance of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing in September.
Skymet's numbers paint a more pessimistic picture. It expects August rainfall at 84% of LPA and September at 80% of LPA, driven by what its Managing Director Jatin Singh described as El Nino strengthening from "strong" to "very strong" during early September. Countrywide rainfall between June 1 and 31 July stood 13% below LPA, Skymet said, after June alone finished at 65% of LPA before a partial recovery in the second half of July.
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Both agencies point to the same underlying driver, a strengthening El Nino paired with an uncertain, potentially late-developing positive IOD, but differ sharply on severity. IMD's below-94% call implies a below-normal season; Skymet's 85% LPA figure and 70% drought probability effectively double down on the risk, according to its assessment released on August 17.
IMD and Skyment differ on their monsoon forecast for 2026.
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