Is it Mayawati’s ‘Abhi Nahin Toh Kabhi Nahi’ Moment in UP?

The spiritual guru who is saidto have given diksha to Mayawati and her political mentorKanshi Ram is reported to have switched sides and is now openly praising theBharatiya Janata Party. His main complaint is that while he waited for sixmonths to get an appointment with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief, the BJPtop brass has been very accessible and helpful.

Whilethe Buddhist monk's departure may not hurt Mayawati politically, desertion ofmany important leaders definitely will. And the list is becoming longer with every passing day. From leaders of considerable influence like Swami PrasadMaurya to R K Chaudhary to as many as five members of legislative assembly(MLAs) – all have left the BSP in the last two months. And the buzz inLucknow is that the remaining upper caste MLAs are negotiating with rivalparties to switch sides. All this is happening at a time when the Mayawati-ledparty is seen to be a front-runner who would benefit from the prevailinganti-incumbency mood in Uttar Pradesh.

Dalit Vote Bank in Disarray

What will hurt Mayawati evenmore is the fact that all those who have left the party have levelled similarcharges: that the leadership is not accessible, that decision-making is notdemocratic, that there is a growing influence of money power in the party andthat candidate selection process for elections is not transparent.

Desertionof some leaders or allegations against her leadership would not have matteredto Mayawati some ten years ago. That was the time she was sure of her core support base of Dalits. Not anymore, however. Mayawati's biggestworry is her declining popularity among Dalits – both Jatavs, once the BSP'smost trusted support base, and others.

According to the Centre for the Study ofDeveloping Societies (CSDS) data, Mayawati-led party won 86 per cent of Jatavvotes in 2007. It fell to just 62 per cent in 2012 assembly elections. What isworse, a majority of Valmiki, another influential Dalit group in Uttar Pradesh,voted for non-BSP parties in the 2012 elections as opposed to 71 per cent ofthem voting for the BSP five years earlier.

As aresult of massive slide in its Dalit support base, the BSP could win only 15seats out of the 85 reserved for scheduled castes in 2012. The Samajwadi Party, onthe other hand, did exceedingly well by winning 58 of these seats. In fact, theSamajwadi Party's vote share in reserved seats was more than its average voteshare in the state. It is quite a change from the situation in 2007. The BSPthen had won 61 reserved seats and the SP a mere 13 such seats.

BSP's Umbrella Coalition

The 2014 Lok Sabha electionswere nothing less than a shocker for the BSP. That year, the BSP's loss amongDalits was BJP's gain. According to the CSDS, in the Lok Sabha electionsnearly 18 per cent Jatav voters and 45 per cent other Dalits voted for the BJPand its allies. No wonder the BJP is on a ‘woo-Dalits' mission in UP to retain thekind of support it received last time.

Certain of the support among its core voter base, the BSP has been bankingon stitching together an umbrella coalition of Dalits, Muslims, and Brahmins.Mayawati is reported to have given tickets to more than 100 Muslims and the partyhas decided to field more than 100 Brahmin candidates too.

Tough Times Ahead forMayawati?

• After stalwarts like SwamiPrasad Maurya and RK Chaudhary, rumours are doing the rounds of BSP's uppercaste MLAs negotiating with rival parties.
  
• The move will come as a severeblow to Mayawati amidst allegations of corruption and nepotism by erstwhile partyloyalists.
  
• Another cause of concern forMayawati is her loosening grip over traditional vote bank of Jatavs and otherDalits.
  
• While BSP received 86 percentof Jatav votes in 2007, that figure came down to 62 percent in 2012 assemblyelections.
  
• BJP, which received maximumsupport from Jatavs and the Dalits in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, likely to giveBSP a tough fight.
  

Desertions Don't Bode Well

The attempt to build a socialcoalition of disparate groups may take a beating if desertion of senior leadersMaurya and Chaudhary continues. After all, Maurya and Chaudhary representeddifferent social groups in the BSP. Despite such hiccups, it is not unusual tofind voices, and quite a few of them in different parts of the state, talkingpositively about the BSP. I found such voices on the streets of Lucknow, Agra,Firozabad, Rampur, and Shahjahanpur. The common theme in all these voices is:“Law and order situation during the BSP regime was much better.”

Such positivesentiment will translate into votes only if Mayawati is able to re-energise herparty and assure its core supporters that the party cares for them. And somepre-election alliance may help Mayawati in her bid to stitch a broad coalition ofsocial forces.

(The writer is Consulting Editor, Business Standard, and contributes regularly to The Quint on politics and contemporary issues.)

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