- India's monsoon rainfall is projected to be 15% below the long-term average this season
- This would mark the weakest monsoon since 2009, impacting agriculture and food prices
- El Nino's strengthening may cause a double-digit rainfall deficit in September
India is headed for its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with rainfall during the June-September season projected to be about 15% below the long-term average, Reuters reported, citing two senior weather department officials.
If realised, the shortfall would make it India's weakest monsoon since 2009, potentially hurting agricultural output, rural incomes and pushing up food prices.
The monsoon accounts for nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall and is critical for agriculture.
A senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the news agency that the impact of a strengthening El Nino could become more pronounced in September, potentially resulting in a double-digit rainfall deficit during the month.
ALSO READ: Delhi: Heavy Rains Lead To Water-Logging In Several Area, Check IMD's Forecast
The official said India could receive about 85% of normal rainfall this monsoon, almost twice the 8% deficit projected in the IMD's initial forecast.
Most regions, barring some eastern states, are expected to receive below-average rainfall in September, further widening the seasonal shortfall.
Poor rainfall in September could affect the yields of summer-sown crops including cotton, soybean, maize and pulses.
It could also reduce soil moisture required for winter crops such as wheat and rapeseed.
The monsoon may also begin withdrawing from northwestern India a few days earlier than usual next month, another weather department official said, although a fresh weather system could alter the timing.
ALSO READ : Flights Impacted Amid Delhi Rains; IndiGo, Air India, SpiceJet And Akasa Air Issue Advisory
India has received 13% below-average rainfall since June 1. June recorded a 35.4% deficit, while July posted a 1% surplus. Rainfall in August has so far been 15% below normal.
The IMD is expected to release its official September rainfall forecast at the end of August.
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
