- Economic Survey 2025–26 warns global fragility may trigger sudden economic shocks
- Disruption in capital flows and rupee weakness pose major risks to India’s economy
- Rising fiscal populism in states threatens sovereign borrowing costs and fiscal stability
The Economic Survey 2025–26, penned by V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, strikes a confident tone on India's growth prospects but has also delivered a clear message of caution: the global environment is entering a phase of heightened fragility where geopolitical tensions, tariff wars, leveraged AI investments and shifting capital flows could trigger sudden, cascading shocks.
While India posts robust domestic fundamentals, the Survey has warned that external volatility, a weakening rupee, possible disruptions in capital inflows, rising fiscal populism in states and challenges to manufacturing competitiveness could complicate the road ahead.
The economy, it says, must brace for a world that is "less coordinated, more risk‑averse, and vulnerable to non‑linear shocks".
Here are the 10 key warnings from the survey:
1. Global Fragility Could Trigger Sudden Shocks
The Economic Survey has warned that global economic stability is increasingly fragile, with geopolitical rivalry, trade coercion and financial vulnerabilities mounting. It says that even mild shocks could escalate into broader turbulence.
One of the three global scenarios outlined involves a significantly higher risk of a fractured, multipolar world where supply chains break down, sanctions proliferate, and cross‑border financial stress spreads rapidly.
The Survey explicitly flags the 10–20% probability of a cascading crisis where AI‑related leveraged investments, geopolitical stress and financial tightening interact to create a downturn worse than 2008.
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2. Capital Flow Volatility & Rupee's Underperformance
India's biggest macro risk, according to the survey, is disruption of foreign capital flows, which could weaken the rupee and worsen the current account. This risk is structural and may not be confined to a single year.
The Survey notes the rupee is “punching below its weight,” and a volatile external environment may keep the currency weak even if India's fundamentals remain strong — creating investor hesitation.
3. States' Fiscal Populism Is An Emerging Threat
The Economic Survey has highlighted that rising unconditional cash transfers, expanding revenue deficits and declining expenditure quality in some States could raise overall sovereign borrowing costs and threaten general government fiscal stability.
4. Manufacturing Vulnerable to High Input Costs
CEA Nageswaran writes that India faces inverted input costs — energy, freight and upstream industrial inputs remain globally uncompetitive. This threatens manufacturing competitiveness unless addressed through structural efficiency reforms.
5. Export Momentum at Risk from Global Trade Shifts
With global trade now driven by security politics rather than efficiency, India's goods exports — already lagging services — may face long‑term headwinds unless manufacturing competitiveness rises sharply.
6. Overreliance On Services
The Economic Survey warns that services exports, while strong, cannot substitute for goods‑based export ecosystems, which are essential for currency stability and long‑term economic strength.
7. Need for An “Entrepreneurial State”
The Survey has also cautioned that India risks stagnation if the State, private sector and households do not upgrade capacity, execution discipline and risk‑taking. Old regulatory reflexes and siloed governance structures could undermine growth.
8. Global Immigration Controls Could Hit Remittances
As more countries tighten immigration pipelines, the CEA has warned that India's remittance inflows may plateau, reducing a key buffer for the current account.
9. Climate Risks Threaten Agriculture & Food Security
India's farm sector continues to face structural vulnerability due to erratic weather patterns, low productivity in major crops, and dependence on allied activities for stability.
10. AI Boom's Financial Leverage Could Backfire
AI‑infrastructure investment globally is heavily leveraged. A correction in this segment could trigger broader market contagion, affecting capital flows into emerging markets like India.
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