The H-1B shock from the Trump administration and increasing uncertainty about US immigration policy could accelerate India's rapid move towards Global Capability Centres (GCCs) and lift GCC exports as a share of India's total services exports over time, according to the top economist at Emkay Global.
The US imposed a $100,000 one-time fee on fresh H-1B visas, a vast majority of which have historically gone to high-skilled Indian workers. The H-1B is a classification of non-immigrant visa in the US that allows American employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations.
A GCC is a strategic unit of a multinational company that supports an organisation's global operations through technology, talent, and innovation. These centers leverage specialised global talent and technology to drive innovation, improve efficiency, and centralize services such as IT, finance, R&D, and customer support.
GCCs have emerged as one of the biggest sectors with an estimated $60 billion of revenue and a key new source of exports for India. Business, Professional and Management Consulting exports and R&D consulting exports rose 25% ($57 billion) and 20% ($8 billion) respectively in FY25, and FY26 so far has seen growth of 80%, as per a note from Emkay.
While the total GCC headcount is still 1/4th that of IT services, it is likely to rise much faster by 2030. Their market size could cross $150 billion by 2029.
"This change in India's export could partially offset the drag on IT services exports and improve domestic sectoral capacity on global innovation and delivery hub. The shift will change the composition of India's export basket — more captive delivery, less vendor-led onsite billing and greater stickiness," said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global.
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Arora said Indian firms have steadily reduced their reliance on H-1B visas in recent years, and the visa fee shock and shrinking H-1B pool are expected to reshape workforce deployment and offshoring strategies toward GCCs.
"Indian vendors have been very adaptive/agile in modifying business models. But in the short to medium term, we do see an increase in risk premium (impacting Indian IT valuations) amid rising policy/geopolitical uncertainty," she said.
Emkay analysts said the near-term impact on Indian IT companies will be limited on net revenues (exports) and margins.
Larger IT firms are also better poised amid a consistent reduction in H-1B dependence to 20-50% for US operations, with increasing local hiring, use of US delivery centres, automation, and subcontracting models.
On the other hand, medium-sized and smaller IT firms could be more hit as they are still more reliant on the traditional contract staffing export models, and they might graduate to large IT companies' models of local hiring, the note said.
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