- Democrats may increase scrutiny of immigration rules after the 2024 midterm elections
- Republican proposals seek higher H-1B wage thresholds and stricter visa penalties
- The SMARTER Act proposes a skills-based system for employment green cards
The US midterm elections in November could influence the country's H-1B visa programme and employment-based green card policies, as Democrats seek to challenge President Donald Trump's immigration agenda.
A Democratic victory could increase congressional scrutiny of immigration rules and put some Republican-backed proposals on hold, although major policy changes are unlikely, according to an ICICI Bank research report.
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Republicans currently control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, Democrats are expected to make gains in the November 2026 elections.
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Market estimates cited in the report put the probability of Democrats winning both chambers at 63%, while the likelihood of the party winning only the House stands at 29%.
The outcome will determine how much room Congress has to influence immigration policy during the remainder of Trump's term. However, even if Democrats take control of both chambers, the President will retain the power to veto legislation, making major changes difficult.
What Could Change For H-1B Visas?
The H-1B programme allows US employers to hire foreign professionals for jobs requiring specialised skills. It is widely used by technology companies and IT services firms that recruit workers from countries such as India.
Republicans have proposed legislation that could tighten requirements for employers hiring foreign workers. The Protecting American Workers Through H-1B Modernization Act proposes higher wage thresholds for certain H-1B exemptions.
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Another proposal, the H-1B Visa Fraud Crackdown Act, seeks stricter penalties for violations of the programme.
If passed, these measures could increase hiring and compliance costs for US companies, particularly IT services firms that rely on foreign professionals.
A Democratic-controlled Congress could make it harder for such proposals to advance. Democrats have also introduced measures dealing with domestic visa renewals and greater transparency in the Department of Homeland Security's enforcement activities.
What Does This Mean For Green Cards?
Employment-based green cards are another area to watch. The proposed SMARTER Act seeks to replace the existing employment-based immigration framework with a skills-based points system. It also proposes narrowing family-sponsored immigration and eliminating the Diversity Visa programme.
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For Indian professionals seeking permanent residency in the US, a shift to a points-based system could change how applicants qualify for employment-based green cards. The eventual impact would depend on the selection criteria and transition arrangements if the proposal is enacted.
Democrats, meanwhile, have called for preserving and expanding legal immigration pathways. Their proposals include measures aimed at creating more pathways to citizenship.
However, these remain legislative proposals and would not automatically change existing immigration rules.
Will A Democratic Victory Change US Immigration Policy?
A change in congressional control is unlikely to bring an immediate reversal of the Trump administration's immigration policies.
The Republican-controlled Congress has already approved $70 billion in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol for the remainder of Trump's term.
This limits the scope for an incoming Democratic Congress to immediately alter immigration enforcement through funding restrictions.
According to ICICI Bank, a Democratic victory could increase oversight of immigration agencies, delay restrictive proposals and provide greater support for legislation expanding legal immigration pathways. However, the extent of these changes would depend on congressional approval and the administration's response.
For Indian professionals, the key issues to watch are proposed changes to H-1B wage requirements, employer compliance rules, employment-based green card eligibility and visa renewal procedures.
The midterm elections could influence the direction of US immigration policy, but any change to the existing system will depend on whether proposed legislation can clear Congress and receive presidential approval.
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