A US-brokered ceasefire between Beirut and Tel Aviv is rapidly losing credibility as Israel intensifies operations in South Lebanon, raising fresh concerns over regional spillover.
Though the truce was agreed in April, both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, with Israeli forces carrying out repeated targeted strikes along the southern border.
The situation echoes Gaza, where violence has persisted despite an October 2025 ceasefire. In Lebanon, the toll is mounting. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health says 2,659 people have been killed and 8,183 injured since March 2.
According to CBS, 73 people have died, and 163 were injured since the ministry's last update on April 30.
These continued hostilities directly challenge Tehran's key condition for any broader truce: a complete and unconditional halt to fighting in Lebanon.
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Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made this clear earlier in April, warning that Washington must choose between enforcing a ceasefire or allowing the conflict to continue via Israel.
“The Iran–US ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the US must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” he said.
With fighting ongoing, that condition remains unmet, stalling diplomacy. The deadlock is deepened by disagreements over a potential US-Iran deal. Tehran has reportedly sought to delay discussions on its nuclear programme, a proposal US President Donald Trump has rejected.
“They want to make a deal, but I don't… I'm not satisfied with it,” Trump said, reiterating that any agreement must address Iran's nuclear ambitions.
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This stalemate is feeding directly into tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has restricted traffic through the key oil route, while the US has stepped up enforcement, including a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
The US Treasury has also warned shipping firms of sanctions if they pay Iran for passage. The Office of Foreign Assets Control said such payments, whether cash, digital, or indirect, carry “significant sanctions risk.”
Analysts said that with Lebanon still volatile and core differences unresolved, a lasting ceasefire looks distant, keeping the Hormuz flashpoint firmly alive.
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