There is only a 50-50 chance of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, a top United Arab Emirates official said on Friday, while accusing Tehran of repeatedly over-negotiating and missing diplomatic opportunities in the past, Reuters reported.
Speaking at the Globsec conference in Prague, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said the region urgently needs a political settlement and cautioned against a second round of military confrontation. "It is a 50-50 chance that we will reach an agreement. My worry is that the Iranians have always over-negotiated,” Gargash said, according to Reuters.
“This is not something new. They have missed many opportunities over the years because of a tendency to overestimate their cards. I hope they don't do that this time,” he added.
Pakistan has been mediating ceasefire talks between the US and Iran aimed at ending the conflict that has rattled global markets and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that handles nearly one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG shipments.
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Gargash said any negotiations focused only on securing a ceasefire, without addressing the underlying causes of regional instability, could sow the seeds for future conflict. “That is not what we are seeking,” he said.
The UAE official also warned that any attempt to alter the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz or place it under Iranian leverage would have far-reaching consequences for global trade and energy security, particularly for Europe.
He urged European nations to treat the security of the waterway as directly linked to their own economic and energy interests, adding that the strait must return to its pre-war status as an international passage guaranteeing the free flow of trade and energy supplies.
The UAE has accused Iran of targeting civilian infrastructure during the conflict, including strikes near US military facilities and attacks on desalination and energy installations around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
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