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Systematix Research Report
Post a weak Q2 FY23, our cement universe could report marginal earnings recovery in Q3 FY23 on higher volumes, superior realisations, and lower energy and freight costs.
Cement sales volumes are likely to be higher by 6.5% YoY (low base effect) and 5% QoQ, supported by pent-up demand from the monsoon quarter and some year-end sales.
Channel checks indicate that the volume impact during the first half of the quarter came from extended monsoon, prolonged festive season, labour issues in some states, sand mining issues, Gujarat state elections, and construction ban in the north (Delhi).
The second half of the quarter was better but not as expected, which reflects in our estimate of ~13% YoY/ ~7.2% QoQ revenue growth, driven by up 6.5% YoY/up 5% QoQ higher volumes and up 6.1% YoY/ up 2% QoQ rise in the net sales realisations of companies within our coverage.
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