- Gold is forecasted to average $4,000 an ounce in 2028 by the World Bank
- Gold prices have already fallen close to the predicted 2028 average price
- The forecast shows a peak in 2026 followed by gradual declines through 2028
The World Bank thinks gold has further to fall. Look closely at its numbers, though, and most of that fall has already happened.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Oct. 28, the World Bank forecast that gold will average $4,000 an ounce in 2028. Spot gold ended Friday at $4,068.71 an ounce. The gap between the two is less than 2%.
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That is a striking position for a forecast that, on paper, calls for prices to decline for two straight years.
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The bank expects gold to average $4,600 an ounce in 2026, a 33.6% jump over last year's average of $3,442. It then sees the price easing 7.6% to $4,250 in 2027 and another 5.9% to $4,000 in 2028.
Those numbers are slightly lower than in April, when the bank had pencilled in $4,700 for this year and $4,300 for 2027.
Set against the year's high, the 2028 forecast looks bleak. Gold closed at a record $5,379 on Jan. 29, and $4,000 is about 26% below that peak. But the market has already done most of that work. A rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September, higher bond yields and a firmer dollar have pulled gold back to around $4,000, with prices briefly slipping below that level in late October.
The forecasts are also annual averages, not end-of-year targets. A $4,000 average for 2028 leaves room for gold to trade well above or below that level at different points in the year.
The report puts the recent weakness down to tighter monetary policy. Gold prices fell 5% in the July-September quarter and weakened further in October, it said, as higher government bond yields and expectations of tighter policy hurt demand for an asset that pays no interest.
For 2027 and 2028, the bank expects central banks to buy less gold than they have in recent years. It also sees jewellery staying under pressure. "Jewelry demand, by contrast, has declined sharply since 2023 and is expected to remain weak," the report said.
But it does not see the bottom falling out. Investment demand and central bank purchases together made up about half of global gold demand in the first half of 2026, the bank said, and it expects those buyers to stay in the market. "Global gold demand is expected to remain firm over 2027–28," the report said.
Why The Forecast May Go Wrong
The bank sees risks on both sides. Fresh geopolitical or trade tensions could lift safe-haven buying and push prices above its forecast. On the other hand, interest rates that stay higher than expected, or a lasting easing of tensions in the Middle East, could drag gold lower.
The next test is close. Markets were pricing in about a 76% chance of another Fed rate hike in December, analysts at precious metals group Heraeus noted on Nov. 2, citing CME Group data. They also pointed to China as a possible source of support, as it was when gold last fell to this level in June and July.
"Renewed Chinese demand could help support prices after breaking below $4,000/oz," the Heraeus analysts wrote.
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