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Motilal Oswal Report
While Q4 FY26 earnings delivered a positive surprise, the Nifty's muted growth trajectory and cautious forward revisions suggest markets may remain stock-specific, with sector rotation and bottom-up ideas taking centre stage.
The Q4 FY26 earnings fared better than Motilal Oswal's expectations; however, forward earnings revisions continue to exhibit weakness.
The Nifty-50 registered a modest 5% EPS growth in FY26 (following a 16%+ CAGR during FY20-25). Following India's sharp underperformance in FY26 and record FII outflows, a favorable base has likely been set for Indian equities.
However, in the near term, the market will remain hostage to volatile developments arising from the West Asian crisis. Higher commodity prices will be the key monitorables, as a prolonged elevated level could affect India's macro parameters and engender a tight monetary policy stance.
Motilal Oswal's model portfolio broadly reflects its preference for growth visibility, structural domestic growth plays, and select global value names. The brokerage firmly believe that this is a bottom-up market, despite India witnessing both time and price corrections relative to EM peers.
The brokerage's key over weight sectors are autos, PSU Banks, diversified financials, manufacturing and industrials, consumer discretionary, and new-age platforms. In contrast, Motilal Oswal is under weight on oil and gas, private banks, metals, consumer staples, IT, and commodities/utilities.
Top Nifty-50 Ideas: Bharti Airtel, SBI, ICICI Bank, M&M, Titan, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Tata Steel, Infosys, and Interglobe Aviation.
Top Non-Nifty-50 Ideas: TVS Motors, ICICI PRU AMC, Groww, Indian Hotels, AU Small Finance, Dixon Tech., Lenskart, Waaree Energies, Coforge, Radico Khaitan, and Delhivery
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