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Systematix Report
Systematix has revised NMDC Ltd.'s target price upward to Rs 112/share from Rs 95/share earlier, implying a potential upside of 21% crom current levels, based on 6.7x FY28E EV/Ebitda and has maintained Buy rating on the stock.
NMDC reported Q4 FY26 Ebitda of Rs 2,640 crore (+29%/+23% YoY/QoQ), 2% below brokerage's estimate. NMDC reported total revenue of Rs 11,340 crore (+62%/+49% YoY/QoQ) with average realisations at Rs 4,759/t this quarter, which fell 5% YoY but marginally increased by 2% QoQ.
Revenue from pellet and other mineral sales was Rs 2,940 crore this quarter (+345%/+318% YoY/QoQ). Iron ore production and sales for the quarter were 16.3mt (+23%/+11% YoY/QoQ), and 15.3mt (+6%/+18% YoY/QoQ), respectively. Ebitda margin during the quarter was 23.2% compared to 28.2% in Q3 FY26 and 29.3% in Q4 FY25, largely impacted by trading revenues for NMDC Steel.
Cost of production excluding selling expenses and royalty stood at Rs 3,425/t (+129%/+93% YoY/QoQ). Employee costs per ton were Rs 445/t this quarter versus Rs 432/t in Q4 FY25.
NMDC reported FY26 revenue of Rs 32,070 crore (+34% YoY), Ebitda of Rs 9,260 crore (+8% YoY), and an Ebitda margin of 28.9% compared to 35.8% in FY25. Total production for FY26 was 53.2mt (+21% YoY), while sales were 50.3mt (+13% YoY). The company closed FY26 with a net cash position of Rs 5,500 crore compared to Rs 6,300 crore in FY25.
Systematix has maintained Buy on NMDC with a revised target price of Rs 112/share based on 6.7x FY28E EV/Ebitda, implying an 21% upside from CMP.
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