Stock Picks Today: HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, JSW Steel, And More On Brokerages' Radar

Sectors such as banking, oil & gas, steel, autombile will be in focus today as brokerages issued fresh views on HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, JSW Steel,  alongside commentary on India's IT sector and more.

Morgan Stanley on Federal Bank

• Maintain Equal-weight; hike target price to Rs 290 from Rs 260
• Q1: Good execution; Full valuation drives Equalweight
• Execution continues to be good and we raise EPS forecasts and TP materially
• Stock has had a strong run and valuation is higher than most large private banks
• This is despite a weaker ROE profile which is unlikely to surpass COE even in FY29

 
Morgan Stanley on Can Fin Homes

• Maintain Overweight with target price of Rs 1055.
• Q1: PAT in-line with estimates; Disbursements beat of 4%.
• SMA pool was stable QoQ
• Valuation offers upside in context of high-teens ROE, mid-teens growth

 
Morgan Stanley on RBL Bank

• Maintain Equal-weight with target price of Rs 335
• NII missed estimates by 8% as NIM fell 28 bps QoQ
• Operating cost beat of 13% drove Core PPOP and PAT beat
• FY27 EPS cut of 5.7%; FY28-29 EPS largely unchanged

ALSO READ: HDFC Bank Q1 Review: Brokerages Flag Margin Pressure Despite Steady Loan Growth

 
Morgan Stanley on Yes Bank

• Maintain Underweight with target price of Rs 15
• Good numbers
• Gradual recovery in profitability continues
• Loan and deposit growth need to sustain

 
Citi on Punjab National Bank

• Maintain Sell with target price of Rs 103
• NIMs/Fees Improve; Treasury Gains/Recoveries Keep RoA Afloat
• Slippages controlled; creates further floating provisions
• Loan growth within guided ranged due to IBPC sell-down
• Deliberately keeping deposit growth calibrated

 
Citi on Axis Bank

• Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 1620
• Steeper NIM Compression, Soft Fee; Deposits Accelerate; Cost Contained
• NIM Compression Steeper Than Expected; NII Growth Soft — Trough Behind
• Loan Growth Above System; Corporate Acceleration; Retail A Soft Spot
• Deposits Growing Faster than Industry; CASA Resilient

 
BofA on HDFC Bank

• Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 950
• Growth recovery underway; NIM compression weighs on profits
• PAT miss led by NIM contraction despite healthy growth
• Controlled opex growth; operating leverage benefit to continue

 
Citi on RBL Bank

• Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 440 from Rs 390
• NIMs plunge, card stress elevated; Recovery on the horizon
• NIM compression on multiple headwinds; Q2 inflection expected
• Advances growth sustained; wholesale and secured retail lead

 
Citi on ICICI Bank

• Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 1770 from Rs 1720
• Earnings Beat - Resilient Core NIMs, Robust Fee, Contained Credit Cost, Accelerated Loan Growth
• Seasonal Slippage Uptick; Credit Cost Contained at 32bps
• Loan Growth Broad-Based; Business/Corporate Banking and Rural Lead
• Deposit Momentum Sustained; FCNR Mobilization in Progress
• Fee Income Robust; Treasury Contribution Modest

Citi on Kotak Mahindra Bank

• Maintain Buy; Cut target price to Rs 465 from Rs 485
• NIMs Contracted, NII Miss, Growth Lags
• Credit Cost/Opex Contained
• Credit Cost Normalizes in a Seasonally Soft Quarter
• SME, Corporate, and MFI Anchor Growth; Secured Retail Remains Sluggish
• Deposit Momentum and CASA Ratio Soften 

Citi on HDFC Bank

• Maintain Buy; Cut target price to Rs 970 from Rs 1020
• NIM Compressed, Fees Soft; Opex/Credit Cost Contained
• Seasonal Agri Slippages Weigh; Ex-Agri Resilient
• Loan Growth Led by Corporate/Business Banking and Gold Loan
• Deposits — Steady Accretion; CASA Ratio Slips

ALSO READ: RIL Q1 Review: JPMorgan Says 'Finally, A Beat'; Strong O2C Offsets Soft Retail — Check Target Price

Goldman Sachs on Craftsman Auto

• Initiate Buy with target price of Rs 11600
• Engine block specialist benefiting from global data center build-out
• Aluminium content per vehicle to increase with transition to EVs
• Engine block business poised to benefit from global data center build out
• ‘Local for global' engine parts opportunity an additional growth driver
• Ongoing turnaround in Sunbeam to support profitability & ROE

 
Goldman Sachs on Sansera Engineering

• Initiate Buy with target price of Rs 4130
• Machining transition to semiconductor + aerospace growth engines
• Aerospace, Defense & Semiconductor pivot boosts margins & realization
• Semiconductor WFE manufacturers require precision engineering suppliers
• Wafer Fabrication Equipment manufacturing Supply Chain in Southeast Asia
• PLI Incentives are not yet factored into projections & represent potential upside
• ADS & Exports to Provide Strong Tailwind to Corporate EBITDA Margins
• Incremental upside optionality from Domestic 2W parts outsourcing

Goldman Sachs on Samvardhana Motherson

• Initiate Neutral with target price of Rs 148
• Emerging businesses + M&A hold key in mature operating backdrop
• Consumer Electronics investments indicate a commitment to scale
• Aerospace order book represents growth visibility
• Core Auto Parts growth to track geographic exposure in developed markets
• Scale in core Wiring Harness, Plastics, and Vision Systems Business, though overall return profile lags peers

 
Goldman Sachs on Bharat Forge

• Initiate Neutral with target price of Rs 2120
• Defense shift + Global CV upcyle priced in
• North America and Europe Commercial Vehicle (CV) upcycle over the coming 2 years
• Europe and US overseas manufacturing continue to struggle with plans to wind down CDP
• Defense revenue to grow 3x contributing 22% to consolidated revenue

JPMorgan on JSW Steel

• Maintain Overweight; Hike target price to Rs 1500 from Rs 1425
• Profitability to decline QoQ in Q2, but commodity cost headwinds are easing
• Capacity expansions & key projects on track
• Captive coking coal volumes to rise by CY28
• Leverage ratios have improved
• Capex will pick up but management guides to net debt to EBITDA of less than 2.5x

 
JPMorgan on Oberoi Realty

• Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 2050
• Commercial holds up in Q1, residential to be the star next quarter
• Pre-sales came in 21% below estimates
• Headline negative free cash flow, however, largely due to working-capital
• See increase in funding costs QoQ
• Expect positive revisions to FY27/28 pre-sales
• See higher annuity NOI estimates from a sharp increase in Sky City mall occupancy

JPMorgan on Reliance Industries

• Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 1660
• Q1FY27: Finally, a beat; Strong bottom line beat
• O2C strong - despite retail losses; Retail soft again
• Commodity strength, commissioning of new energy projects and valuations are key drivers

Kotak Securities on HDFC Bank

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1050
• The floor is visible, but the catalyst remains elusive
• Weak NIM performance results in negligible earnings growth
• Transformation is visible in the balance sheet, absent in the income statement
• Pursuit of loan growth in an increasingly constrained deposit environment continues to delay NIM expansion

 
Kotak Securities on Axis Bank

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1600
• NIM compression offsets improving fundamentals
• Strong earnings growth, led by lower provisions; NIM declines qoq
• Delivering on growth while visibility of NIM expansion is yet to be validated
• Value intact, catalysts absent

 
UBS on Poonawalla Fincorp

• Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 640 from Rs 610
• Good quarter; continued RoA improvement
• New segments driving AUM growth
• Stable asset quality despite macro-related overhang
• Continue to like Poonawalla on continued strength in growth and improving RoA 

Kotak Securities on ICICI Bank

• Maintain Buy with target of Rs 1800
• Shifts back into top gear
• NIM was stable; earnings growth remains supported by decline in provisions
• Outperforming on metrics that matter most
• Outperformance likely; relative valuation limits multiple expansion

 
HSBC on Mahindra and Mahindra

• Maintain Buy with target of Rs 4200
• Demand remains robust across the portfolio
• Supply constraints continue to limit deliveries
• XUV 7XO and Bolero lead wait periods
• Scorpio N facelift/mid-cycle upgrade expected in August

 
UBS India Strategy - Hartmut Issel

• See catalysts for a turnaround emerging and a compelling entry point for India
• This prompts Upgrade of the market to Attractive
• Country's macro backdrop should improve
• Expect economic growth to pick up over the next few quarters
• See double-digit corporate earnings growth over the next two years
• Banking sector is already showing progress, with loan growth picking up
• IT services may face slower growth in the near term due to AI disruption
• IT could become a key player as demand for AI solutions and integration with legacy systems rises
• Nifty valuations are currently attractive
• Believe India's long-term growth drivers are intact, providing a good entry point

Citi on JSW Steel

• Maintains sell | target price Rs. 1,100 (cut from Rs. 1,165)
• 1QFY27 Ebitda likely peaked; China upside appears limited.
• Volumes impacted by weak retail demand and destocking; 2Q demand may improve.
• Realizations down 10% QoQ, with sharper correction in longs.
• Higher coking coal costs, but captive iron ore/coking coal to aid cost savings.
• Expansion projects underway; targeting 62 mt capacity by FY32.
• POSCO JV and BMM acquisition to strengthen scale.
• Net debt/Ebitda improved to 1.5x; Citi expects lower Ebitda/t ahead.

 
Citi on Federal Bank

• Maintains NEUTRAL | target Rs. 360 (raised from Rs. 290)
• Core operating metrics delivered a positive beat.
• NIMs expanded 13 bps QoQ to 3.33%, supported by sustained deposit repricing.
• Loan growth driven by gold loans, LAP and corporate/commercial banking.
• Credit cost at 41 bps. Remains below guided 50–60 bps range.
• Lower than expected fees and elevated employee costs were offset by strong NII performance.
• NIMs remain well-anchored, supported by CASA depth, positive loan mix shift
• Management guided for mid-teens credit growth with an upward bias.

 
Morgan Stanley on JSW Steel

• Maintains OVERWEIGHT | target Rs. 1,470
• EBITDA beat estimates, driven by better realizations and good cost control.
• Volumes were weaker than expected, impacted by BF‑3 restart timing and seasonally weak demand.
• Realizations improved QoQ, supported by higher share of value‑added products.
• Coking coal costs remained elevated but iron ore cost moderation could partly offset pressure ahead.
• Management expects 2QFY27 to be seasonally weak, but outlook beyond seasonality remains constructive.
• Net debt reduced to Rs. 539 bn after receiving final BPSL sale proceeds;
• Brokerage remains positive on steel demand, improving monsoon outlook and medium‑term anti‑pollution actions in China.

 
Jefferies on JSW Steel

• Maintains BUY | target price of  Rs. 1,650
• 5th consecutive quarter of double‑digit Ebitda growth;
• Higher realizations and lower VAP discount supported profitability
• Asian steel spreads expected to expand as China exports decline
• Expects India steel prices to rise; imported steel remains at a discount to domestic prices.
• Management expects coking coal costs to rise in Sep-Q, before moderating thereafter.
• Expansion pipeline remains strong; targeting 80 mt capacity by FY32 from 38 mt in FY26.

 

Jefferies on Poonawalla Fincorp

• Maintains BUY | target price of Rs. 560 (raised from Rs. 490)
• Strong AUM growth driven by rapid scale-up in new products.
• New products contributed 26% of disbursements with focus on higher-yield segments.
• NIM expanded 24 bps QoQ to 7.5% supported by better yields and lower leverage.
• Management expects NIM expansion to continue over FY27-29.
• Asset quality improved; credit costs expected to decline, aided by improving delinquency trends.
• Gold loans and education loans have lower structural credit costs.
• Sharp profit growth and RoE expansion is expected

 
Kotak Institutional Equities on Federal Bank

• Downgrades to ADD | Target Rs. 375 (raised from Rs. 335)
• Strong earnings driven by revenue growth and lower provisions
• Loan growth supported by continued traction in retail and commercial banking.
• NIM improved by ~10 bps on deposit repricing
• CASA and loan mix shift remain supportive.
• Asset quality metrics remained comfortable
• Slippages low and provision coverage strong.
• Credit cost expected to trend towards the lower end of the 50–60 bps guidance range.
• Bank's Valuations increasing to higher levels

Macquarie on Reliance Industries

• Maintains OUTPERFORM | target price Rs. 1,510
• Jun-Q earnings above consensus, driven by stronger refining margins and growth in Jio.
• Jio delivered strong subscriber additions; ARPU slightly above expectations and segment margin improved.
• Margin declined due to FMCG business merger impact.
• O2C segment benefited from strong capture of elevated refining spreads and improved crude sourcing conditions.
• Upstream gas business saw higher production.
• JioStar revenue grew 14% YoY with better manufacturing facility utilization.
• Interest expense rose 18% YoY with capex remaining elevated at ~US$4 bn.

 
Bernstein on India Strategy

• Bernstein sees further 8–9% market upside
• Earnings growth expectations remain below prior cycle peaks.
• Recent market rebound has been driven by domestic liquidity
• Large FII outflows disproportionately impacted large caps.
• Expects leadership to broaden from SMIDs to large caps, as foreign flows stabilize and valuation gaps narrow.
• Current Nifty implied growth expectation is ~10.5%, only modestly above Mar. 2026 levels despite market recovery.
• Large-cap valuations look more attractive relative to SMIDs, with small and mid-cap valuations near all-time highs.
• Sectorally, Bernstein prefers IT and Healthcare. Metals and Autos have become more attractive after recent corrections.
• Telecom, Healthcare, IT and Power stand out when comparing near-term expectations versus long-term pricing.
• Cement and Industrials close to fair value, while Staples remain in the expensive zone.

 
Macquarie on Adani Green Energy

• Maintains OUTPERFORM | target price Rs. 1,800 (raised from Rs. 1,700)
• 10GWh annual additions expected to drive incremental EBITDA growth due to BESS
• Renewable capacity addition remains strong; targeting ~5GW annual additions until FY30.
• Expects ~30% EBITDA CAGR over the next 5 years, supported by execution and scale-up.
• Heavy capex supported by strong cash flow generation; net debt/Ebitda expected to decline by FY30.
• Grid availability remains a key challenge; BESS expected to provide long-term transmission solution.
• Faster capacity ramp-up and improvement in transmission connectivity remain key catalysts.

 
Macquarie on Power Grid

• Maintains OUTPERFORM | target Rs. 800
• Management proposed raising borrowing limit to Rs. 3.5 tn from Rs. 3.0 tn
• Board recently approved increase in overall borrowing limit to Rs. 2.2 tn from Rs. 1.8 tn.
• Macquarie expects capex/capitalisation to pick up, aided by resolution of right‑of‑way issues.
• Company exceeded its FY26 capex guidance
• Remains a key beneficiary of India's long‑term renewable energy and transmission build‑out.
• Capex outlook remains healthy with ~Rs. 1.7 tn of work‑in‑hand, providing revenue visibility.
• Brokerage expects a sharp pickup in capex and capitalisation over the medium term.

Goldman Sachs on PTC Industries

• Maintains BUY | target price Rs. 25,770
• Secured a major order from BrahMos Aerospace, marks entry into high‑value systems and sub‑systems integration.
• Order represents a strategic shift from critical materials supplier to integrated defence systems player.
• Project requires advanced integration capabilities, precision manufacturing and highly reliable execution, highlighting growing technical expertise.
• Participation in the value chain beyond materials is expected to strengthen competitive positioning and margins.
• PTCIL can now also play on BrahMos missile exports, an area seeing growing international traction.
• Key risk – slower capacity ramp-up.

 
Goldman Sachs on Havells India

• Maintains BUY | target price Rs. 1,400 (cut from Rs. 1,510)
• Revenue growth driven by C&W and renewables
• Growth expected to improve gradually across segments.
• Margins impacted by higher input costs and ad spending. Margins are currently bottoming out.
• Recent price hikes are yet to fully reflect in margins. Benefits expected in coming quarters.
• Channel inventory has normalized, supporting a healthier demand outlook.
• Havells announced additional capex towards cables & wires, reinforcing growth ambitions.

Kotak Institutional Equities on Havells India

• Maintains ADD | Target Rs. 1,325 (unchanged)
• Media spends weighed on margins. EBITDA margin falling to a decade low.
• Revenue growth was led by W&C, while Lloyd and switchgear performance disappointed.
• Management expects A&P spending and margins to normalize going forward.
• W&C demand remained strong, while Lloyd was impacted by a shift from "sell‑in" to "sell‑out" focus.
• Switchgear exports were affected by the West Asia disruption, though recovery is expected in 2Q.
• Demand environment remains healthy
• Management expects margins to improve further as price hikes flow through.

 
Goldman Sachs on JSW Steel

• Maintains BUY | target price at Rs. 1,525 (raised from Rs. 1,500)
• Q1FY27 EBITDA beat estimates, supported by better realizations and strong overseas performance.
• Volume growth remains the key positive; BF‑3 restart expected to drive higher volumes in 2HFY27.
• Net debt reduced by Rs. 77 bn QoQ post BPSL divestiture
• Capacity expansion and downstream projects remain on track, supporting future volume and margin growth.
• Expects weaker domestic spreads in Q2FY27 but higher volumes should offset the impact.

 
Bernstein on Kotak Mahindra Bank

• Maintains MARKET-PERFORM | target Rs. 500
• Loan growth remained broad-based at 15% YoY, led by corporate, SME and retail segments.
• Deposit growth lagged at 12% YoY, with moderation in low-cost balances
• NIM declined 14 bps QoQ due to lower loan yields.
• Asset quality remained stable
• Credit costs increased modestly, reflecting rise in fresh slippages
• Cost discipline supported profitability. Lower credit costs driving earnings growth.
• RoE remained below large private peers. Elevated capital buffers continuing to weigh on profitability.

 
Bernstein on HDFC Bank

• Maintains OUTPERFORM | target Rs. 1,150
• Delivered another steady quarter, supported by healthy loan and deposit growth.
• Loan growth remained strong, led by corporate and small & mid-market segments; retail growth stayed subdued.
• NIM declined 12 bps QoQ, with pressure from lower loan yields and higher funding costs.
• Asset quality remained stable, with credit costs at 40 bps and GNPA/NNPA broadly unchanged.
• Operating efficiency helped offset weak NOI growth, supporting profitability.
• Provisioning remained elevated and Margin headwinds continue to constrain earnings growth.

 
Bernstein on Axis Bank

• Maintains OUTPERFORM | target price Rs. 1,600
• Growth continues to be corporate-led, with strong traction in corporate and SME lending.
• NIM declined 16 bps QoQ, with higher dependence on corporate lending for growth.
• Healthy loan growth helped offset margin pressure, supporting NII growth.
• Asset quality saw marginal deterioration. Higher slippages leading to increased credit costs.
• Credit costs increased QoQ, though remained significantly lower YoY.
• Cost discipline helped offset weak revenue performance.
• Lower opex growth supporting profitability.

 
Bernstein on ICICI Bank

• Maintains MARKET-PERFORM | target price Rs. 1,550
• Strongest loan growth among large private banks, driven by business banking and retail recovery.
• Deposit growth accelerated, with improving LDR supporting balance sheet growth.
• NIM expanded despite already elevated base, aided by funding costs declining faster than asset yields.
• Business banking remained a key growth driver, while non-mortgage retail loans recovered.
• Fee income growth remained strong, reflecting healthy underlying business momentum.
• Asset quality remained stable, supporting another quarter of strong earnings delivery.

 
Goldman Sachs on Tata Technologies

• Maintains SELL | target price Rs. 550 (raised from Rs. 510)
• 1QFY27 revenue was in-line, supported by steady execution and new business wins.
• Tenneco deal is a key growth driver, with ramp-up expected from early CY27 and spread over 5 years.
• Management expects sequential growth through the year, led by new deal wins.
• Expects sequential margin improvement in 2QFY27, despite wage hike impact.
• BMW JV has crossed 2,000 employees, indicating continued scaling of the business.
• Aerospace business is expected to grow faster than company growth with a double-digit growth outlook.
• Goldman sees organic growth returning in FY27 but maintains Sell due to full valuation versus peers.
   

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