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SAIL's Q4 Impresses, But Citi, Morgan Stanley Stay Bearish On Valuations — Check Revised Targets

Brokerages remain cautious on SAIL despite a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, with both Citigroup and Morgan Stanley maintaining bearish ratings on the stock.

SAIL's Q4 Impresses, But Citi, Morgan Stanley Stay Bearish On Valuations — Check Revised Targets
STOCKS IN THIS STORY
Steel Authority Of India Ltd.
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Steel Authority of India Ltd. in on brokerages' radar as the company's net profit for the fourth quarter of FY26 surged 46.7% year-on-year. The Maharatna PSU posted a consolidated bottom-line of Rs 1,836 crore, compared to Rs 1,251 crore in the year-ago period. 

SAIL also said its workforce could shrink by nearly 3,500 employees every year over the next two years even as the state-run steelmaker pushes for higher production and output from existing plants. "And as we look at - I mean, similar numbers will be reduced also in '26-'27 and '27-'28 means around 3,400 to 3500 numbers will be reduced in each of the years," Chairman and Managing Director Ashok Kumar Panda said during the company's post-earnings conference call on Saturday.

SAIL Q4 (Consolidated) Highlights

  • Net Profit rose 46.7% to Rs 1,836 crore versus Rs 1,251 crore.
  • Revenue rose 5.1% to Rs 30,813 crore versus Rs 29,316 crore.
  • Ebitda rose 26.5% to Rs 4,408 crore versus Rs 3,483 crore.
  • Margin at 14.3% versus 11.9%.
  • To pay a final dividend of Rs 2.35 per share.

Brokerages remain cautious on SAIL despite a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, with both Citigroup and Morgan Stanley maintaining bearish ratings on the stock.

Citi retained its Sell rating and raised its target price to Rs 180 from Rs 135, acknowledging that the March quarter was operationally strong. However, the brokerage believes SAIL's EBITDA per tonne may have peaked, suggesting profitability could moderate from current levels. Morgan Stanley maintained its Underweight rating with a target price of Rs 140. The brokerage said SAIL's adjusted EBITDA fell short of its estimates, as both sales volumes and realizations were weaker than expected.

Citi on SAIL

  • Citi maintains a Sell rating and has raised its target price to Rs 180 from Rs 135.
  • The brokerage described Q4 as strong, but believes EBITDA per tonne may have peaked.
  • It also cautioned that SAIL's Debt-to-EBITDA ratio could rise from current levels, which may limit further upside despite the recent improvement in operating performance.

Morgan Stanley on SAIL

  • Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating with a target price of Rs 140.
  • The brokerage noted that SAIL's adjusted EBITDA came in below its estimates.
  • Volumes and realizations were weaker than expected, although lower costs provided a partial offset.
  • Morgan Stanley expects Q1FY27 margins to expand as higher domestic steel prices begin to flow through.
  • However, it believes the company's FY27 volume guidance of 22 million tonnes appears optimistic.

ALSO READ: SAIL Says Nearly 3,500 Employees Could Exit Every Year Even As Production Rises

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