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Motilal Oswal Report
Russia is a commodity powerhouse and a net exporter in many.
Russia was the second largest crude producer globally in 2020 with 9.86 million barrels per day. It was the fourth largest steel producer in the world in 2020 with 73.4 million tonnes per annum, competing closely with Japan (third largest with 83.2 mt) and India (second with 99.6 mt). In 2020, Russia was also the third largest aluminum producer (at 3.6 mt) and the third largest nickel producer (at 250 kilo tonne) in the world.
In terms of global trade, Russia currently accounts for ~9-10% of global aluminum exports, ~11-12% of nickel exports, ~20% of thermal coal exports, and ~12% of global steel trade (excluding intra-regional trade).
We believe sanctions on Russia will impact the prices of aluminum, nickel, steel, thermal coal, and pulverised coal injection positively. In addition, it will lead to cost escalations because of alternative sourcing, delays in establishing new sources, delays in payments and consequent deferrals in shipment releases among others.
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