Fresh questions over possible market manipulation have emerged after a series of unusually timed trades in crude oil and equity futures appeared to precede major geopolitical developments involving the United States and Iran.
According to market commentary platform The Kobeissi Letter, nearly $920 million worth of crude oil short positions were placed roughly 70 minutes before a key media report signalled progress toward a potential US-Iran deal.
BREAKING: According to our analysis, ~$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a "14-point" deal to end the war.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 6, 2026
At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without… pic.twitter.com/SZafvnZHHG
The report noted that at around 3:40 AM ET, close to 10,000 crude oil contracts were shorted, an unusually large trade for that time of day, especially in the absence of any major news trigger.
At 4:50 AM ET, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were nearing a “memorandum of understanding”, potentially marking a breakthrough in ongoing tensions.
Markets reacted swiftly. By 7:00 AM ET, crude oil prices had plunged more than 12%, translating into an estimated $125 million profit for traders holding those short positions.
However, volatility intensified soon after, with oil prices rebounding nearly 8% following reports that Iran had launched a new entity referred to as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
ALSO READ: 'Hormuz Will Open': Trump Warns Iran To Accept Deal Or Face Bombing
The backdrop to these trades is a potential diplomatic breakthrough. According to Axios, the US and Iran are close to finalising a 14-point memorandum of understanding, which could pave the way for de-escalation and broader nuclear negotiations.
The proposed framework reportedly includes a moratorium on Iran's nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief and release of frozen Iranian funds by the US and easing restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.
Negotiations are said to involve US envoys and Iranian officials, with talks potentially moving to locations such as Islamabad or Geneva.
$2 Billion Trades Ahead Of Trump Remarks
The episode follows another instance of unusual trading flagged earlier this week. Data from trading platform Unusual Whales showed that nearly $2 billion worth of trades in oil and equity futures were executed just minutes before remarks by Donald Trump.
Trump had indicated that the US and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” and announced a five-day postponement of planned US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
Just five minutes before these comments, traders reportedly bought $1.5 billion worth of S&P 500 futures and sold $192 million worth of oil futures.
These positions would have generated significant gains as equities rallied and oil prices dropped sharply, by as much as 15%, briefly slipping below $100 per barrel.
Separately, a report by the Financial Times highlighted that around 6,200 Brent and WTI crude futures contracts, worth roughly $580 million, were traded within seconds ahead of the announcement.
It remains unclear whether these trades were executed by a single entity or multiple market participants, but their timing has raised concerns about possible information asymmetry or advance knowledge of market-moving developments.
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