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ICICI Securities Report
We maintain Marico Ltd.'s earnings estimates for FY24-25E, modelling revenue / Ebitda / profit after tax compound annual growth rate of 9/16/16 (%) over FY23-25E.
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We upgrade to 'Buy' from 'Add' with a revised discounted cash flow-based target price of Rs 670 (versus previous target price of Rs 610).
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At our target price, the stock will trade at 49 times price/earnings multiple March 2025E.
Key downside risk: Higher-than-expected inflation in copra prices.
We met the management of Marico Ltd. Key takeaways from the interaction-
Marico has medium-term volume growth aspiration of ~8% (versus revenue growth of 8% in FY2013-2023). We like the ambition to grow faster on a larger base,
in Parachute coconut oil, with stability in copra price and revival in rural consumption, volume growth is likely to improve,
competitive intensity at the bottom of pyramid segment in value-added hair oil has normalised. This along with incremental thrust on premiumisation may help value growth in value added hair oil to gradually improve,
in edible oil, Saffola expects to hold threshold margin while maintaining stable growth,
revenue from food segment is expected to be more than edible oil business over the medium term. This may reduce operating margin volatility due to reduced exposure to cyclical commodity price,
on direct-to-consumer brands, incremental focus would be on profitable scale-up by using distribution and marketing strength.
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