- Shares of InterGlobe Aviation fell nearly 2.8% ahead of Q4FY26 results announcement
- Q4 revenue expected to rise 2.2% to Rs 22,645 crore, slowest growth in 20 quarters
- EBITDA forecasted to drop 72% to Rs 1,724 crore due to forex losses and fuel costs
Shares of InterGlobe Aviation Ltd are under pressure ahead of their fourth quarter results. The stock fell as much as 2.78% to a low of Rs 4,443.10 apiece. As of 2:20 pm, it is trading 2.68% lower at Rs 4,446 apiece.
IndiGo's March-quarter performance is expected to come under pressure from a combination of operational and macroeconomic headwinds. Analysts anticipate the airline will report its slowest revenue growth in the last 20 quarters, with international operations impacted by disruptions arising from the Middle East conflict.
InterGlobe Aviation Q4FY26 Preview (Consolidated; YoY)
- Revenue seen up 2.2% to Rs 22645 crore vs Rs 22152 crore
- EBTIDA seen down 72% to Rs 1724 crore vs Rs 6089 crore
- EBITDA (ex-forex) seen down 7% to Rs 5555 cr vs Rs 5953 cr
- EBITDAR seen down 74% to Rs 1815 cr vs Rs 6954 cr
- EBITDAR (ex-forex) seen down 14% to Rs 5881 cr vs Rs 6817 cr
- Net loss of Rs 2305 cr vs Net profit of Rs 3068 cr
- Yields down 2.3% at Rs 5.2/Km Vs Rs 5.32/Km
Key Factors
Profitability is likely to be weighed down by higher international aviation fuel prices and softer yields, particularly due to a high base effect from the Mahakumbh-driven travel demand seen in the year-ago period.
A key drag on earnings is expected to be foreign exchange losses. The depreciation of the Indian rupee by around 5.5% during the quarter, to 94.8 against the dollar from 89.9 a year earlier, is likely to significantly hurt the bottom line. Brokerages estimate forex losses could exceed Rs. 4,000 crore, making it the biggest factor impacting net profit in the quarter.
What To Watch
Going forward, investors will closely track management commentary on the pace of recovery in air traffic demand, the net impact of elevated fuel prices and any fuel surcharge measures, as well as the airline's capacity expansion plans for FY27.
Updates on IndiGo's long-haul international operations and network expansion strategy will also remain key areas of focus.
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