Overall, Q3 FY25 real/nominal growth came in line with market expectations. CSO projects 7.6% YoY growth in Q4 FY24, which would be difficult to achieve considering a higher base of 8.4% in Q3 FY24. We expect Q4 FY25 real GDP growth at 6.0-6.3%.
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Motilal Oswal Report
India's real gross domestic product grew 6.2% in Q3 FY25, higher than 5.6% in Q2 FY25 (revised up from 5.4%) and 9.5% in Q3 FY24. The number was better than our forecast of 5.7%, in line with the market consensus of 6.2%, but was lower than RBI's projection of 6.8%.
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The improvement in real GDP growth was mainly led by the six-quarter highest growth in final consumption expenditure (7.1% in Q3 FY25 versus 5.3%/5.6% in Q3 FY24/Q2 FY25).
Both private and government consumption witnessed an improvement during the quarter. Additionally, real net exports added 2.5% to real GDP growth in Q3 FY25 (the highest contribution in seven quarters).
Nominal GDP growth was 9.9% in Q3 FY25, lower than 12.9% in Q3 FY24 but better than 8.3% in Q2 FY25.
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