ICICI Bank Ltd. is expected to report steady profit in the March quarter despite a sharp rise in provisions, with higher net interest income and improving asset quality helping offset softer net interest margins. The bank is scheduled to announce its quartely results on April 18.
Bloomberg estimates indicate net interest income may rise 7.1% year-on-year, while profit is seen little changed. Provisions are expected to increase 65% from a year earlier. Gross non-performing assets are projected to improve sequentially, while net interest margin is seen moderating from the previous quarter.
The focus this quarter will be whether ICICI Bank can sustain strong retail and small business loan momentum while protecting margins in a competitive rate environment. Investors will also watch if lower slippages and contained credit costs can continue to support returns as growth normalises in FY27.
ICICI Bank Q4 Results Preview: Key Highlights (Standalone, YoY, Bloomberg Estimates)
- Net interest income seen 7.1% higher at Rs 22,704.2 crore versus Rs 21,193
- Net interest margin seen at 4.24% versus 4.41%
- Provisions seen 65% higher at Rs 1,477.72 crore versus 890.7 crore
- Gross NPA seen at 1.47% versus 1.53% (QoQ)
- Profit seen little changed at Rs 12,650.13 versus Rs 12,629.58 crore
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Here's what analysts expect from ICICI Bank Q4 results announcement.
Systematix Research
- Advances growth expected to be broadly in line with industry trends on a sequential basis.
- Lower asset yields may not be fully offset by lower funding costs, leading to marginal pressure on NIM.
- Fee income expected to grow faster than advances, with higher other income.
- Operating expenses expected to remain under control.
- Slippages, credit costs and provisions expected to decline sequentially.
Nomura
- Expects loan and deposit growth momentum to pick up in Q4.
- Asset quality expected to remain stable, with lower slippages sequentially.
- NIM expected to decline by around two basis points due to repo rate transmission, partly offset by term deposit repricing and the cash reserve ratio cut.
- Key watchpoints include margins and loan and deposit growth outlook.
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Antique Stock Broking
- NIM expected to be marginally lower quarter-on-quarter.
- Net interest income growth seen at 7% year-on-year.
- Loan growth expected at 13.3% year-on-year, with deposits growth at 9%.
- Fee income expected to remain strong due to seasonal trends.
- Operating expense growth expected to stay controlled.
- Slippages expected to decline sequentially, with stable credit costs.
- Profit expected to rise modestly, with return on assets improving sequentially.
Kotak Securities
- Pre-provision operating profit expected to remain flat year-on-year due to slower loan growth and lower NIM.
- Loan growth expected at around 13%, with recovery in retail and small and medium enterprise segments.
- NIM expected to decline sequentially amid a competitive environment.
- Credit costs expected to remain low, with no new provisioning surprises.
- Key focus areas include NIM outlook and loan growth trajectory given the external environment.
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