Elon Musk expects newly listed SpaceX to generate roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, well ahead of even Wall Street's bullish projections for his rocket-and-AI conglomerate.
Responding on X to a Morgan Stanley revenue forecast, Musk said SpaceX "might be able to reach approximately $1 trillion revenue in 2030," adding that he would be "surprised" if revenue did not exceed $1 trillion in 2031.
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The brokerage's own estimates peg SpaceX revenue at $160 billion by 2028 and $330 billion by 2030, scaling to $3.4 trillion by 2040, up from the $18.7 billion the company actually booked in 2025. Musk's 2030 number is roughly three times Morgan Stanley's estimate for the same year.
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The claim lands days after SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion and closing its first session at a $2.1-trillion valuation, the sixth-largest U.S. listed company. The debut also made Musk the world's first trillionaire.
The trillion-dollar revenue math, however, sits awkwardly against the numbers in SpaceX's own offer document. The company posted a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and lost a further $8.7 billion through March 2026, with the S-1 conceding it "may not achieve profitability."
Long-term debt stood at $29.1 billion at March-end. Much of the long-term growth story rests on a claimed $28.5 trillion total addressable market, of which roughly 90% is attributed to artificial intelligence rather than the Starlink and launch businesses that generate cash today.
Governance adds another caveat. Musk will control over 82% of voting power through 10-vote Class B shares, a structure U.S. pension funds have criticised as leaving him effectively unfireable.
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