Fertiliser stocks could remain in focus as India heads into the Rabi season amid rising concerns over El Nino, uneven rainfall and potential crop stress. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, at an Asia Society event in New York on Sept 29 warned of a 'possible major food crisis' in the coming months, citing fertiliser shortages, disrupted grain shipments and the prospect of a 'super El Nino'.
The immediate trigger for the agricultural sector is the impact of weather on the upcoming winter crop season. The government has been preparing for a challenging Rabi campaign, with states being asked to tailor strategies to local weather and water conditions. The Centre has also emphasised weekly crop monitoring, balanced fertiliser use and water-based crop planning as it prepares for the 2026 crop.
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What It Means For Fertiliser Demand
For fertiliser companies, the picture is broader tahn it looks. Higher crop stress can increase demand for crop-protection products, but a weaker crop outlook or lower acreage in rainfed areas could curb fertiliser consumption.
Coromandel International, Chambal Fertilisers and Paradeep Phosphates could be among the listed names in focus. Other listed companies to watch include RCF, NFL, FACT and Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals (GSFC).
El Nino Adds To Rabi Risks
El Nino has emerged as a major risk for winter crops, particularly in rain-fed regions where farmers have less access to assured irrigation. A weak monsoon has already affected the agricultural outlook. Rainfall was 15% below average as of reports last week, with farmers becoming more cautious about spending on fertilisers, pesticides and seeds amid teh ongoing uncertainty over harvest outcomes.
Now, the weather impact is unlikely to be uniform, and while rainfall-deficit areas could see prolonged crop stress, some regions could face excess soil moisture. Credit rating agency ICRA had flagged deficient rainfall, weaker reservoir storage and El Nino-related moisture risks as potential headwinds for Rabi sowing and crop yields.
At the same time, India's domestic fertiliser availability remains relatively comfortable. Government data showed 163.35 lakh metric tonnes of fertiliser stocks as of July 2, with urea, DAP, MOP and NPK inventories built up ahead of the agricultural seasons.
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