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ICICI Securities Report
The brokerage firm ICICI Securities has maintained its Buy rating on Blackbuck Ltd. with a three-stage DCF-based revised target price of Rs 650 (vs Rs 775). This implies a 32x one-year forward EV/Ebitda multiple (FY28E).
In Q4 FY26, the core business grew 52.2% YoY, led by 21% YoY growth in tolling gross transaction value and strong traction in telematics, particularly AIS-based tracking devices where volumes grew ~2x QoQ.
BlackBuck's tolling GTV grew 11pps ahead of the industry in FY26, despite already having a ~50% market share. New businesses grew ~3x YoY, driven by strong momentum in Superloads and vehicle financing.
The brokerage believes the ongoing Middle East conflict could create a temporary drag on freight activity, while the margin outlook could remain muted in the near term due to continued growth investments.
Consequently, ICICI Securities has cut its FY27/28E Ebitda by 9.3/10.8% and target price to Rs 650 (vs Rs 775; implied EV/Ebitda for FY28E cut to 32x from 40x).
The brokerage remains constructive on the medium- and long-term prospects, hence maintains Buy rating on BlackBuck.
Key risks:
Regulatory headwinds on existing businesses; stalling growth in new businesses if management is unable to scale its marketplace; and a slowdown in logistics due to geopolitics or muted consumption.
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