Weather analysts are betting on an early arrival of monsoon in Mumbai around June 5 this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted that the Southwest Monsoon may reach Kerala around May 26, nearly a week ahead of its normal arrival date of June 1.
Consequently, many private weather forecasters like Rushikesh Agre expect arrival of monsoon in Maharashtra in the first week of June.
In an X post on Tuesday, Agre noted that as the IMD has predicted monsoon onset on Kerala on May 26, Maharashtra and Mumbai may receive their rainfall arrival on June 2 and June 5, respectively. Last year Mumbai recorded its earliest monsoon onset in 75 years on May 26, according to IMD officials. The normal date for monsoon's arrival in Mumbai is June 11.
IMD predicts Southwest Monsoon onset over Kerala around May 26.
— Mumbai Rains (@rushikesh_agre_) May 19, 2026
Expected arrival by IMD:
Maharashtra - around June 2 ⛈️
Mumbai - around June 5 ☔ pic.twitter.com/Od03BvZtQF
A day ago, Mumbai division's IMD Director Bikram Singh also predicted a similar timeline for monsoon arrival in the city.
“The onset of the southwest monsoon is expected in Kerala around May 26. If the monsoon progresses normally, it will arrive in Maharashtra around June 2 and in Mumbai around June 5,” Singh was quoted as saying by the Free Press Journal.
The IMD said the southwest monsoon has already advanced into most parts of the southeast Arabian Sea and parts of the Kanyakumari region.
“Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin area, southwest & southeast Bay of Bengal, most parts of the Andaman Sea, entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and some parts of the east-central Bay of Bengal today, 18 May,” it posted on X on Monday.
Mumbai Rainfall Arrival Trends In Past 10 Years:
Last year, Mumbai received its earliest ever monsoon arrival on May 26, the earliest onset over the city in decades due to an exceptionally rapid advancement. The year before that, the official onset date was logged on June 9. In 2023, it arrived on June 25, one of the latest on record. It was majorly tied to disruptions from Cyclone Biparjoy. In 2022, it reached around June 11, while 2021 saw onset on June 9 and 2020 on June 14.
According to the Met, the monsoon onset date for Kerala may vary by four days on either side of May 26. This can subsequently have implications for monsoon arrival in Maharashtra.
| Year | Arrival Date | Status Relative to Normal (June 11) |
| 2025 | May 26 | 16 days early |
| 2024 | June 6 | 5 days early |
| 2023 | June 25 | 14 days delayed |
| 2022 | June 11 | On time |
| 2021 | June 9 | 2 days early |
| 2020 | June 14 | 3 days delayed |
| 2019 | June 25 | 14 days delayed |
| 2018 | June 9 | 2 days early |
| 2017 | June 12 | 1 day delayed |
| 2016 | June 20 | 9 days delayed |
ALSO READ: Monsoon To Arrive Early This Year? IMD Forecasts Onset In Kerala By May 26
While the monsoon arrival may happen earlier than usual, there are concerns that India will likely have below -normal rainfall this year between June and September. According to the IMD, the possible influence of El Nino could weaken the season and reduce overall rainfall intensity across the country.
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