The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday issued its weather outlook for June 2026, reiterating warnings about below-normal rainfall across most parts of India. IMD also said maximum and minimum temperatures during June are expected to remain above normal in most parts of the country in June.
“Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, indicating that below normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2026,” the weather agency warned.
Which Regions Will Get a Weak Monsoon?
In its bulletin, the IMD said: “During June 2026, below normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country.” However, some areas of northwest India, eastern parts of south peninsula and adjoining areas of east-central India and isolated pockets of East India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
“Below-normal rainfall may lead to challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystem sustainability, along with increased risks of drought, heat stress, and pressure on drinking water resources,” the IMD warned.
On temperature trends, the weather agency predicted that some parts of central, northwest and east India are exceptions where normal to below monthly maximum temperatures will be recorded. The remaining regions must prepare for above normal monthly maximum temperatures.
“Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except some parts of northwest, central and adjoining south peninsular India where, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are very likely,” it added.
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Heatwave Warnings
The Met department warned that during June, above-normal heatwave days are likely in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. It added that some areas of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu may also face more heatwave days. However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand may witness below-normal heatwave days.
“The increased likelihood of heatwave conditions during June 2026 may have considerable impacts on public health, water availability, power consumption, and essential services. Vulnerable groups, including the elderly, children, outdoor workers, and persons with pre-existing health conditions are particularly at risk from prolonged exposure to extreme heat,” it said.
El Nino May Form During Monsoon:
The IMD also warned that neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually shifting towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the latest climate model forecasts, El Nino is likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season in India.
El Nino conditions are often linked with weaker monsoon rainfall and higher temperatures across parts of India. Earlier, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also warned of a potential “super” El Nino event in mid-2026.
El Nino occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal. This can impact global weather events, leading to worsened heatwaves, droughts, floods and irregular monsoon patterns worldwide.
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The 2023-24 El Nino was one of the key factors behind 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. The WMO warned that a possible “super” El Niño in mid-2026 could make 2026 or 2027 the hottest years ever.
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