India's 2026 southwest monsoon is shaping up to be weaker than usual, with both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private forecaster Skymet Weather projecting below-normal rainfall for the June–September season. While the estimates differ slightly, the broad message is consistent: rainfall may fall short of the long-term average, raising concerns for agriculture and rural demand.
IMD Vs Skymet: What The Forecasts Say
The IMD has pegged the 2026 monsoon at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%. This places the season firmly in the “below-normal” category, as a normal monsoon is defined as rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA.
Skymet, which released its forecast earlier on April 7, has projected rainfall at 94% of LPA (817 mm), also with a ±5% margin. Though slightly higher than IMD's estimate, it still falls below the normal threshold.
Both forecasts point to a subdued monsoon, with Skymet cautioning that the second half of the season could be erratic and uneven, a key risk for crop cycles.
Climate Factors At Play: El Nino And IOD
A major factor influencing this year's outlook is the expected emergence of El Nino conditions.
According to IMD Director General Dr M Mohapatra, the current weak La Nina phase is transitioning towards neutral conditions, with El Nino likely to develop around June. Skymet shares a similar view, stating that El Nino could strengthen through the monsoon and into the autumn months.
ALSO READ: Weak Monsoon Ahead? IMD Flags El Nino Risk For 2026 Season, Expects 92% Rainfall
Typically, El Niño is associated with weaker rainfall over India, as it disrupts normal monsoon circulation patterns.
However, both agencies highlight a potential counterbalance in the form of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). IMD expects the possibility of a positive IOD during the latter half of the monsoon, which could enhance rainfall and partially offset El Nino's adverse impact. Skymet also notes that a positive IOD could act as a mitigating factor.
Regional Distribution: Uneven Rainfall Likely
While the overall rainfall is expected to be below normal, regional patterns could vary significantly.
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall across much of the country, with exceptions in parts of the Northeast, Northwest and southern peninsular India, where rainfall may be normal to above normal.
Skymet offers a more granular view. It expects:
- Above-normal rainfall in eastern and northeastern regions
- Deficient rainfall across northern, western and central India
- Near-normal precipitation over the southern peninsula
Importantly, key agricultural states such as Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan may witness lower-than-normal rainfall, especially during the critical months of August and September.
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